Release day? I sincerely doubt it. Christmas, though, I'd say is pretty certain. If you order now, you're getting no worse than the 2nd batch (and even if you order now, there's still a possibility you'll get it on release day - it all depends on how many Sony is able to manufacture), so yeah, I'd say you would be safe getting it well before Christmas.
I'm guessing these consoles are going to launch around the last week of October/first 2 weeks of November, so they should have gone through 3 or 4 batches before Christmas.
EDIT: Official message from Amazon regarding ordering a PS4 now:
The standard version of the PlayStation 4 is identical to the Launch Edition. Due to high demand, we cannot guarantee Release-Date Delivery on the standard version of the PlayStation 4. We will deliver the standard version of PlayStation 4 as close to its release date as possible.
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