Army, Navy might hold key to Big East football expansion
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- The Big East is now officially on the clock. The league has until September 2012 to determine its football membership because that's when ESPN's 60-day exclusive media rights renegotiating window with the league begins.
So what schools will the Big East add? Numerous candidates have been mentioned including Villanova, Central Florida, East Carolina and Houston. However, college industry sources told CBSSports.com the league is also considering the possibility of pursuing Army and Navy as football members to get to 12 teams.
"I believe the league will approach the academies first and if they turn the Big East down, then they'll approach the other candidates," a college football industry source said. "There are a lot of hurdles to overcome. The Big East would have to convince them that's where they want to be."
The league would be attracted to Army and Navy because of their national appeal and also because the schools could join as football-only members. If they joined, along with another member, to get the Big East to 12 schools, a championship game would be on the table.
If the academies are the answer, would they be open to moving the Army-Navy game from its customary December spot to November? It's been nearly 30 years since the Army-Navy game was played around Thanksgiving. Plus the schools already have television deals with CBS Sports Network and future bowl agreements in place.
A conference schedule would also limit both schools' scheduling flexibility. However, the Big East could make all of those "hurdles" easier to manage for the academies with a huge annual payday as part of the league's new media rights deal.
Also, Army (which had an unsuccessful run in Conference USA from 1998-2004) and Navy must consider their futures as independents. They're both in good shape now, but what about five years from now as the power leagues grow stronger and the financial and competitive gaps between the automatic qualifying BCS schools and non-AQ BCS schools continue to widen?
If Army and Navy have an opportunity to join a BCS league, is it an offer they can refuse?
"I don't think there's a clear-cut answer for the Big East," said Neal Pilson, former President of CBS Sports. "You look at increasing the footprint, but it's not just the size of the market. It also has to do with the loyalty in their markets.
"Generally speaking, teams that come from larger markets are more attractive for a TV carrier, but a small team market like Green Bay is hugely important."
Added another college industry source: "There are a lot of tentacles in what the league is trying to do."
Villanova, UCF, East Carolina and Houston would love an offer to join the Big East football ranks. Just a year ago, Big East commissioner John Marinatto said the league was waiting on Villanova's decision on whether to move up from FCS to FBS. The Wildcats now are ready to make the move, but the Big East has put its invitation on hold because of concerns where Villanova will play its home games.
Of all the expansion candidates, Villanova brings the nation's fourth-biggest television market in Philadelphia and one of the top FCS programs, having won the 2009 FCS national title and advancing to the 2010 FCS semifinals.
Also in Villanova's favor is that it is already a member in all other sports so it gets to vote whether to admit itself as a football member. Still, the Wildcats would need 11 of the remaining 15 all-sport members to vote in their favor. By the way, Marinatto said ¾ of the membership must approve what teams to add. TCU joins the league on July 1, 2012, so if the teams aren't voted on until after July 1, 2012, TCU gets a vote and each team then must get approval from 13 of the 17 schools.
Besides the academies and Villanova, the most obvious candidates -- and currently the strongest football programs -- are from Conference USA: UCF, East Carolina and Houston.
Each one offers its share of positives and negatives for the league and the consensus among league personnel is that there isn't a clear-cut favorite or pecking order among the three C-USA schools.
Houston is located in the nation's fourth-largest city and has the biggest TV market (No. 10) of the three. The Cougars also are building a new $120 million football stadium, projected to be completed by 2013.
UCF would give the Big East two schools in Florida, guaranteeing the league's schools one trip a year to the state's fertile recruiting grounds. The Knights also would have the largest enrollment in the Big East.
East Carolina, whose TV market (ranked No. 25) is surprisingly close to UCF's No. 19 Orlando TV market, has led C-USA in attendance the past three seasons and had the second-highest non-AQ home attendance average last season (49,665).
East Carolina athletic director Terry Holland would not specifically address the Pirates' interest in the Big East, but did address with CBSSports.com whether ECU could compete in any conference. Houston AD Mack Rhoades and UCF AD Keith Tribble declined comment for this story.
"I believe that East Carolina's ability to compete with most of the institutions in the conferences with automatic qualification has been proven on the field, in the stands and by the marketplace," Holland said.
Since 2005, the Pirates have seven wins against AQ BCS conferences; the second most of the Big East candidates behind Navy's 14-17 record vs. AQ BCS teams.
Holland also referenced the 2009 Liberty Bowl between East Carolina and Arkansas, which drew a 10.3 rating (2.4 million households) on ESPN in the combined markets of Greenville, Raleigh/Durham and Charlotte, N.C., compared to the 2008 Holiday Bowl between TCU and Boise State, which drew a 5.1 rating (2.4 million households) in Dallas/Fort Worth.
Holland added the Pirates' attendance numbers -- they would have ranked fourth last year in the Big East in attendance (49,665) -- will increase when ECU's stadium expands to 60,000 in 2016.
The downside to adding any of the C-USA schools is they likely would require membership in all sports, meaning the basketball league could grow from 17 to possibly 20.
"That's the trade off," a source said. "You build up football, but it makes basketball more unwieldy."
A CBSSports.com survey of the league's football coaches reveals that group wants to expand to 12 teams. And that's also why UConn basketball coach Jim Calhoun predicted the league's football and basketball teams would split in four-to-five years.
"What a television network would look at as far as upcoming negotiations is how can it become more valuable?" Pilson said. "One way of doing that is expanding into cities and states that they're not already there. Another thing is the value of a conference championship game. My guess is they're looking at getting to 12 to stage a championship game, which has significant value."
Marinatto said the league looks to take advantage of being the final AQ BCS league without a new media rights deal with the possibility of ESPN, NBC/Comcast and Fox all bidding on the Big East.
"There's no easy answer," a college industry source said. "Is there some desire to [expanding] just to have a championship game? Not every conference wants one.
"When the league is firm what they want to do about expansion they will look at three things: market size, academic fit and the football program. They have to have all three to be a serious candidate. There's no reason to expand to have worse football."
And with all the possibilities out there, there remains another very real one: the league could choose to stay at nine teams and not expand. Fortunately we'll know in 16 months. The clock is ticking.
Source:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...ball-expansion
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