Over the weekend I started using a much more thorough list of NFL draft eligible players. Ended up recording the 40 times and SPD ratings of over 1100 players. Some of them may not have been accurately recorded, but that's one reason for the increased sample size ... it should all come out in the wash. And, for the most part, it did.
The Results (for the so inclined)
Spoiler: show
The Equations
If anyone's actually reading this, this is probably what you're really interested in.
I decided to take the breakdown one step further this time, and include categories for the different positions. The reason for this is that some positions in NCAA are designed to have limits in max SPD and min SPD. If I'm trying to convert real 40 times to SPD ratings, I have to take this into account. Combining similar positions into categories allows for more accuracy in the conversion while making sure that the conversion for my QB isn't affected by a DL's SPD rating.
Off Backfield = Quarterbacks and all Running Backs
Receivers = Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Trenches = Offensive and Defensive Linemen
Back 7 = Linebackers and Defensive Backs
Slope Y-Int equation All Players -40.23 271.64 SPD = -40.23 * (40-time) + 271.64 QB -21.67 178.97 SPD = -21.67 * (40-time) + 178.97 HB -13.39 150.8 SPD = -13.39 * (40-time) + 150.8 WR -13.42 150.98 SPD = -13.42 * (40-time) + 150.98 TE -15.16 154.51 SPD = -15.16 * (40-time) + 154.51 OL -6.15 89.21 SPD = -6.15 * (40-time) + 89.21 DT -11.79 125.34 SPD = -11.79 * (40-time) + 125.34 DE -8.85 121.11 SPD = -8.85 * (40-time) + 121.11 LB -6.03 111.36 SPD = -6.03 * (40-time) + 111.36 CB -3.43 106.3 SPD = -3.43 * (40-time) + 106.3 S -8.79 129.26 SPD = -8.79 * (40-time) + 129.26 Off Backfield -33.76 241.35 SPD = -33.76 * (40-time) + 241.35 Receivers -24.96 202.7 SPD = -24.96 * (40-time) + 202.7 Trenches -34.21 239.24 SPD = -15.47 * (40-time) + 140.09 Back 7 -22.62 191.51 SPD = -22.62 * (40-time) + 191.51
And now some examples:
(I hope you can tell that the categories produced much better results than the individual positions)
Examples QB HB WR TE OL DT DE LB CB S All Players Off Backs Receivers Trenches Back 7 4.29 86 93 93 89 63 75 83 85 92 92 99 97 96 92 94 4.43 83 91 92 87 62 73 82 85 91 90 93 92 92 88 91 4.56 80 90 90 85 61 72 81 84 91 89 88 87 89 83 88 4.71 77 88 88 83 60 70 79 83 90 88 82 82 85 78 85 4.92 72 85 85 80 59 67 78 82 89 86 74 75 80 71 80 5.03 70 83 83 78 58 66 77 81 89 85 69 72 77 67 78 5.27 65 80 80 75 57 63 74 80 88 83 60 63 71 59 72
Just while I was writing this up, I've already made a change, but I hope that's my last one. Originally, my categories for defensive players had OLs and DTs in one, DEs and LBs in another, and CBs with Safeties in the final category. This didn't produce satisfactory results, especially for the defensive backfield. By grouping the DEs in with the other lineman, and moving the LBs with the defensive backfield (Back 7), the results were much more satisfying.
For example, originally a 4.29 DB was listed at 92 with a 5.27 DB at 83. 94 and 72, respectively, are much better in comparison to the other ratings.
Hope this is of use to, well, anybody besides me.
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