Yeah you would have thought that people would have learned from the Bills taking Aaron Maybin from PSU in the top 10 a few years ago.Originally Posted by baseballplyrmvp
Yeah you would have thought that people would have learned from the Bills taking Aaron Maybin from PSU in the top 10 a few years ago.
As long as Pouncey can stay healthy it's going to be fun.
So looking back, especially considering the Browns in this thought, if I was a GM, unless you know for an absolute fact that the guy you're drafting is a sure thing, I would never be able to draft a QB in the first round. The ONE position that can absolutely fuck a team and season, and you take the chance, and spend millions and tens of millions, on a guy who is completely untested in the NFL. Then you add in that most teams who draft someone in the first round, their fans all expect that guy to become an automatic starter for the team. Just look at all the busts since 1998 in the first round:
Jason Campbell
Byron Leftwich
Patrick Ramsey
Brady Quinn
Kyle Boller
JP Losman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Jim Druckenmiller
Tim Couch
Cade McNown
Akili Smith
JaMarcus Russell
Ryan Leaf
The guys who could be considered busts depending on each individual view:
Daunte Culpepper
Rex Grossman
Vince Young
As for good picks:
Donovan McNabb
Michael Vick
Carson Palmer
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Eli Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Joe Flacco
Sam Bradford
Matthew Stafford
Guys with a mix of both good and bad:
Mark Sanchez
Chad Pennington
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
And the guys who are still "unknown" as it's either too soon, they haven't had enough playing time to say for certain one way or the other or other various reasons:
Matt Leinart
Vince Young
Josh Freeman
Tim Tebow
Christian Ponder
Blaine Gabbert
Jake Locker
Cam Newton
Basically you end up with a better chance (by a small bit, but still better) of drafting a bust than drafting a franchise or long-term QB. For the money guaranteed to first round draft picks, and the hype that comes with them and all the fans expecting that guy to become the immediate starter just because he was drafted in the first round, I would never be willing to draft a first round QB unless it was the most guaranteed thing.
You could post the same list for every single position. Look at how many WRs are drafted in the 1st round and turn out to be busts. And it's not just QBs who get paid outrageous 1st round contracts, it's all players.
A couple things to consider. The guaranteed money is no longer an issue. Luck's contract will only be 4 years and about $25M. The days of a high bust ruining you for years because of money are over.
My biggest problem with Weeden is his age. He's 1.5 years younger than Big Ben. This formula failed in the past with guys like Chris Weinke and Drew Henson. The dumbass media loves that he is mature. I, personally, don't want a guy who will be 30 a month into his second season.
In addition, how much better are the Browns with Weeden and Richardson than they would be with McCoy and Hillis? "Marginally" is the only honest answer at this point. So, I believe Cleveland would have been better off re-signing Hillis and drafting 2 players to help McCoy (perhaps Blackmon and DeCastro). This is why the Browns are the Browns. They're dumb.
Thankfully, their stupidity in ignoring their need at guard and passing on DeCastro to draft an old rookie QB led Pittsburgh to get an absolute steal in round one. Thank you, Clowns!
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This. People are saying how Kurt Warner and Steve Young were 28 and 29 when they got their first start. While it is true, they were also in the pro game for a number of years gaining experience
Very true. But to me at least, if you draft a bust in a WR, all it costs you is money and a roster spot for a couple years. If you fuck up and draft a bust at QB, if you're drafting him with the plan of making him the starter, it completely sets your team back for multiple years, and basically screws you for the long term, leaving you sitting there trying to fill the spot with temporary players until that "next big, great QB" shows up in the draft. That's where my extreme hesitation is in drafting 1st round QBs.
Yep. Basically, unless Weeden picks up the offense instantly and is the day 1 starter or you put him in the lineup some point during the season, you just drafted a quarterback that would be 30 before even making his first start for your team. So you just spent a first round draft pick on a guy that you might get 7 or 8 years, tops, out of, and on a guy who isn't even a sure thing.
Here's a great article talking about this very thing (comparing which positions have a higher bust potential or, as the article puts it, which position is the safest position to draft in the first two rounds).
It's pretty interesting stuff.
For those that don't want to read, here is a chart outlining their findings:
Obviously, the amount of TEs taken greatly skews it a bit since pretty much the only TEs taken in the first two rounds are basically sure things anyway, but it's interesting to see that offensive linemen are just BARELY better off to be taken than LBs and DBs.
Also, their criteria for being a bust is not playing a significant amount of snaps (among other things) in the NFL in their first 5 years in the league. Certainly not the criteria that other people for measuring the worthiness of labeling someone as a bust, but it's definitely interesting none-the-less.
To be fair, they'll do good to get 7 or 8 years out of Richardson too. RBs don't have a long shelf life and bust out at a high clip just like QBs.
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I think the one thing that has really started to skew the DL busts are the fact that teams are taking chances on DE's and trying to make them rush LB's. They are all looking for the next Clay Matthews or D Ware and are willing to take projects.
Edit: Thinking about it, that might actually be skewing the LB busts.
you guys are drafting a good qb. he'll learn enough of the offense to get by his first year and he's an upgrade over mccoy, in a lot of areas. he's a ton more mature than some of the more notable "busts" that have happened in recent years, so i dont think he'll fall into the bust category.
he wont be terrible.....like tavaris jackson and charlie whitehurst were last year for the 'hawks......age aside, i'd rather have weeden as my starting qb than tannehill. the only downside here, is that you'll have to take another qb in the draft in 6 or 7 years (which isnt that bad).
If I was a (f)Aggie, I'd tell that bitch to get her gorilla feet off of that helmet (the aTm one, not Tannehill's).
Back to Weeden, I think the Browns could also waited for him at pick 37 tonight.
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http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/sto...ts-target-hoax
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That's kinda fucked up. Poor guy.
Yeah, but at least he doesn't have to be a Bengal.
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Janoris Jenkins to the Rams.
Typical dirty ass Jeff Fisher pick. I guess Mr. Porn 'stache and Mullett didn't learn from Pacman Jones.
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another reach for seattle. bobby wagner from utah state in the second round. i'm really not understanding the logic but that must be why i'm not in the draft room.
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