So last night I did some recruiting research to see both the caliber of player available, and also what players are likely to be toward the end of their playing career.
I took 134 players from Pac-10 teams and followed them from their freshman season until they graduated four or five years later (keep in mind I'm only including players who played out their eligibility - i removed about 10 players who either transfered, were cut or went pro).
There were some interesting findings ...
- Players this year don't have the same kind of rapid progression as in years past. The most any player jumped from one season to the next was 6 points.
- The better a player is coming in doesn't mean he'll progress faster. While most of the top per-season progressers were highly rated recruits who were high-70s freshman, some low 60s snuck into the mix as well. There are also some guys who were rated in the high 70s who barely progressed at all. So a players rating coming in doesn't necessarily reflect the pace he'll progress.
- Redshirting a player really just gives him an extra year of average progression. Players who redshirt don't progress at a fast or slower pace later.
- Year to year progression is pretty steady. The average player progress 2.73 points a year. In Year 2 its 2.60, Year 3 2.83, Year 4 2.76, Year 5 2.61.
- The high yearly average progression was 5.33 a season (for a non-kicker type). The low, 1.
- You can use this to try and figure out what a player might look like, best, average and worse case scenario once you get them and also determine a redshirt or not.
- The number of points a player progresses in Year 2 is a pretty good indication of his total progression. 78 of the 134 players had an average yearly progression with +- 0.50 of their first season progression. So if a guy progressed 4 points in year two, he is very likely to progress between 4.5 and 3.5 points a season for his career.
- Only 12 of the 134 swayed more than 1 point per year away from what they did their first year progressing.
- So as a result after one season you can get a pretty good picture of what a given player is going to look like down the road. If he had a 1 point increase you might not want to hold onto him hoping he'll be awesome as a senior. However if you have a 65 overall player that jumps 4 points, he might be a solid backup/roll player a few years down the road.
- The average player recruited sees and increase of 10 points overall from freshman year to graduation. The high was 18 points, the low 3. Just to prove the high caliber busts, the 3 point increase was an Oregon TE that was a 78 overall freshman and graduated an 81 overall.
- Might not be a big enough sample size, but playing time might not be a huge aspect of this. USC had two good progressing recruit QBs who both finished over 90 overall despite only one of them getting playing time.
Quick example ...
HB Richardson recruited by USC. He came in as a freshman as a 76 overall.
Using the info above we can tell he's likely to become an 85 overall by the time he graduates (3 years of progression at 2.73 points a year). Best case he's a 92 overall (3 years at 5.33). And if he's a flop, 79 overall (3 years at 1 overall).
We can also use the info to make decisions about redshirting him. Add another year to all of that and we've got likely got an 87 overall, a 94 overall or an 80 overall.
After season one we see he progresses 4 points overall to 80. From that we can be pretty certain he'll be an 84 overall junior and an 88 overall senior with a potential to go up or down 1. (He actually jumps 6 going into his junior year and ends up a 90).
Here's the background info in Excel and PDF format ...
http://www.blygilmore.com/Recruiting.xls
http://www.blygilmore.com/Recruiting.pdf
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