The playoffs get underway on Wednesday. Here are the matchups:
Eastern Conference
1 Rangers vs 8 Senators
2 Bruins vs 7 Capitals
3 Panthers vs 6 Devils
4 Penguins vs 5 Flyers
Western Conference
1 Canucks vs 8 Kings
2 Blues vs 7 Sharks
3 Coyotes vs 6 Blackhawks
4 Predators vs 5 Red Wings
Use this thread to discuss the playoffs.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk
I took a few hours yesterday to crunch some numbers to try and come up with a formula to pick the winners in each series. My formula (without boring you with the math) took into account each team's record against playoff teams from their conference, each team's record over the last 20 games, each team's Power Play and Penalty Kill percentage, and the differential between home and road records in each matchup.
After the math was done, I assessed what it told me by also factoring in my personal knowledge and how the teams faired against one another during the regular season. Here are the results:
Rangers vs Senators
The numbers say that the Rangers will win easily. Likely in 4 or 5 games. However, New York dropped 3 of 4 against the Sens this season, so it may be a bit closer than that. I still can't see an upset though, I'm taking the Rangers in 6.
Bruins vs Capitals
The defending champions will have their hands full against the Caps. They lost 3 of 4 to Washington and the Capitals have faired very well against the top teams in the East. The only advantage the numbers give to Boston is home ice and the numbers say it will be enough to push Boston through in 7. However, I'm calling for an upset here and taking Washington in 7. Perhaps Washington having no expectations or pressure on them this year will get them a series win. That said, if Tim Thomas gets hot, the Bruins will win (though I'm sticking with the upset call).
Panthers vs Devils
Florida hasn't been in the playoffs in twelve years and they are terrible against top competition. The Devils have the best record in either conference against their conference's playoff teams. The numbers point to a sweep, but I'm taking New Jersey in 5 based on the fact that the teams split in the regular season. Either way, Florida is not ready for the playoffs and will be a quick out.
Penguins vs Flyers
Pittsburgh is better against top opponents, were better down the stretch, have the best special teams in the league, have more star power, and have home ice. Even with all of that, they don't match up particularly well with Philly, lost 4 of 6 to the Flyers, and have dropped 5 of 6 all-time at Console Energy Center against Philly. The numbers say Pittsburgh in 7, and I'm sticking with that. This series can go either way, and it sucks for both teams that the 4th and 5th best teams in league have to meet in the first round.
Canucks vs Kings
This is a bad draw for the President's Trophy winners. LA is good against top-level opponents, was hotter down the stretch, and has special teams that are on par with Vancouver. The numbers say the Canucks advance in 7, and I agree. However, this series will come down to goaltending and we all know Luongo is a head case. I like the Canucks lineup, talent, and experience to get them through, but I won't be shocked if they are upset.
Blues vs Sharks
Like Washington, San Jose has been a playoff flop for years. That won't end this season. The Blues are nearly unbeatable at home and have virtually everything going their way from a numbers standpoint. They also went 4-0-0 against the Sharks in the regular season. I don't think their playoff inexperience will bite them against San Jose. The numbers call for a sweep, and I agree, Blues in 4.
Coyotes vs Blackhawks
The numbers give a slight edge to Phoenix, and suggest a Coyote win in 7 games. I'm going with Chicago in 7 though because I am counting on them to get healthy at the right time. If Chicago gets healthy, and plays to form, quickly, they'll win in 5 or 6. If not, Phoenix will give them fits.
Predators vs Red Wings
This series is very close on paper. The teams even split 6 contests this season. The real advantage that Nashville has, coming in, is that Detroit has struggled tremendously down the stretch. I never count the Wings out, until they are out, but I am taking Nashville in 7. This should be a very good series.
So there you have it. Now that I have the numbers on paper, I will compare the second round matchups when I get a chance and eventually pick a Cup winner.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk
Last edited by steelerfan; 04-09-2012 at 07:49 PM.
Can't wait for the series to start
Looks like Briere practiced today as normal without a non-contact jersey. Still uncertain for game one though.
I'll have to keep an eye out for this guy's Western Conference picks, but his Eastern Conference picks are almost EXACTLY like mine. Wow.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-...-One/159/43691
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk
Now, based on my picks for the first round (some of which will likely be wrong), here is the second round:
Rangers vs Capitals
I think good fortune will catch up to the Caps in the second round and Lundqvist will prove to be too much for Washington to handle. The numbers say Rangers in 7, and I'm going to agree. I wouldn't be surprised if Washington loses in the first round to Boston, but I would be surprised to see the Caps in the East Finals.
Penguins vs Devils
The numbers say this would be the tightest second round matchup and these teams split 6 games in the regular season. The Devils have had a good season, but Broduer isn't the playoff stalwart he once was, and I don't think New Jersey can score with Pittsburgh. Even though I think the series would be shorter, I'm taking the Penguins in 7.
Canucks vs Blackhawks
After a tough opening round series with LA, Vancouver catches a little break in round 2. The Canucks matchup well with Chicago and I like Vancouver in 6. The numbers support this but, again, this could change depending on Luongo and the health of the Blackhawks.
Blues vs Predators
Other than home ice, the numbers like Nashville. However, I just think the Blues are too strong at home to let this series get away. I'm taking St. Louis in 7. The biggest problem with my pick is that St. Louis dropped 4 of 6 to the Preds this year (2-2-2) and Nashville has the upper hand in a matchup between 2 teams with very little playoff experience.
I'll get to work on the Conference Finals shortly.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk
And now, based on my picks to this point, here are the Conference Finals.
Rangers vs Penguins
Pittsburgh took 4 of 6 from New York this season and have dominated them down the stretch. Add to that the war of words between the clubs and this series could be as heated as the opening Pittsburgh/Philadelphia series. The numbers only slightly favor Pittsburgh, but I like them to win in 6. I think Sidney Crosby would be highly motivated to make John Tortorella eat his words and Pittsburgh's fire power would submit the Rangers.
Canucks vs Blues
There aren't any numbers that really point to St. Louis in this series. In fact, they suggest Vancouver in 6 or 7. However, I'm not sold that the Canucks will return to the Final and I really like the Blues this year (a dangerous thing to do with a team with so little playoff experience). I'm taking St. Louis in 7 games, in a bit of an upset.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk
Now, the Stanley Cup Final.
Blues vs Penguins
The league's top scoring team against the league's number one defense, this would be an extremely intriguing matchup. The Blues won 3-2, in overtime, in Pittsburgh, and the Pens won 3-2, in a shootout, in St. Louis. Talk about tight.
I was impressed to see that Pittsburgh was 6-1-2 this season against Western playoff teams, until I saw that the Blues were 7-1-1 against Eastern playoff foes. Wow!
The Penguins have been the hottest team in the league down the stretch and have the (slightly) better special teams.
I have a ton of respect for St. Louis' 30-6-5 home record and, if they had some playoff experience, I'd be picking them to win the Cup.
However, I'd take Pittsburgh in 7, if this matchup were to come to pass.
Now, I know what you're thinking. The Penguins fan picks the Penguins - imagine that. Just know that I don't make a habit of picking my teams (I certainly didn't like the Steelers in the playoffs this year) and I'm going with some things that make a Cup champion.
Besides being the hottest, and highest-scoring team in the league, the Pens have the top special teams and are finally healthy. I think any honest fan would tell you that they would have had the best record in the league if they had been healthier this season.
They finished just 3 points behind the President's Trophy-winning Canucks despite Staal missing 20 games, Letang missing 30, and Crosby missing 60.
If healthy, I think Pittsburgh's biggest hurdle will be Philadelphia and I won't be shocked if the Flyers beat them. That series is truley a coin flip.
St. Louis is very impressive. Between their netminding and their home record, they are going to be a tough out for anyone. I just can't pick a team with so little playoff experience to win the Cup.
The Rangers are capable (though they also lack experience), but they struggled too much down the stretch for me to pick them.
Even though I have Boston making an early exit, they have the experience and goaltending to make a run. However, their special teams are middle-of-the-road (among playoff teams) and the B's have been inconsistent this year.
Philadelphia is capable of making a deep run, similar to Pittsburgh. Their big issue is that they face the Penguins in the opening round. If they get past Pittsburgh, they could be poised to do some serious damage in the East. I'm just not sold on their goaltending, which has let them down through the years. They are, however, second in scoring behind Pittsburgh.
Vancouver has all the pieces to win the Cup, if Roberto Luongo is on his game. The problem is, he is very inconsistent and often disappears in crucial playoff series.
Even though Chicago is suspect in some areas and they have the worst special teams in the playoffs, they are talented and dangerous, if healthy. They just haven't shown enough for me to pencil them into the winner's column this year.
Nashville is a team I could get behind if they had some playoff success under their belt. They are 8th in scoring offense and defense and they have solid special teams (only Pittsburgh, Vancouver, and New Jersey are better). I just don't like them doing real damage on the road, which they will have to do from the 4 slot (not to mention they have a tough draw in Detroit to open).
Speaking of Detroit, if they had some home ice, I'd love their chances. But, they don't. And, they're ice cold right now.
So, as you can see, there are several teams who I believe have a shot at the Cup and some of those will have a tough time just getting out of the first round. This should be a very fun and exciting playoff this year and I'm looking forward to seeing how it actually unfolds.
Injuries, upsets that occur (or don't), and hot or cold goaltending are certain to change the shape of how things unfold so stay tuned!
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk
Last edited by steelerfan; 04-09-2012 at 07:55 PM.
Homer.
At least they're in.Originally Posted by SmoothPancakes
Homer.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk
You just had to go there.At least they're in.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk
I like the picksMy only problem is if it plays out this way, that we are exhausted by Cup time. As you mentioned the Philly and Rangers series could be the most physical, grueling series of the playoffs. Especially if they both go 7 games.
Yeah. But, from a purely numbers standpoint, it's tough to call any series going only 4 or 5 games, after the first round. That said, some will.I like the picks
As well, the Penguins core is still very young and they haven't made a deep run in a few years now so they should have better legs than some other teams.
I also noted that I believe the Pens would make quick work of the Devils, but the numbers forced me to say otherwise. For the record, I think Philadelphia and Boston would give Pittsburgh the biggest problems, of all the teams in the East.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2
Yesterday, I posted this guy's Eastern Conference picks because they were almost exactly the same, down to the number of games, as mine.
Here are his Western Conference picks that he released today. They're close to mine again, but not exact. It's interesting to me that he is picking the Kings to upset Vancouver (something I mentioned as a strong possibility).
This makes me wonder what a parlay of New Jersey, St. Louis, and LA would pay. I'm very confident in the Devils and Blues winning their series and I think LA is a coin flip which must pay very well.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?p...blogger_id=159
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2
I just watched a segment on NHL Gamecenter on my phone that will be daily throughout the playoffs. It has Barry Melrose on it and he picked the series winner for all 3 series that start tonight. Barry picked Pittsburgh in 7, Nashville in 7, and LA in 7. Sounds alot like my picks.
He also picked Pittsburgh to win the Cup in 7 over Chicago.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2
Let's Go Pens!
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2
One HELL of a comeback by the Flyers to win game one!
Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2
The dude abides.
Yes, it was, for sure.
Would have been nice if Briere had been called offside on his first goal.
I wish I could watch this series without having a rooting interest because this is going to be a heck of a series.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2
Go Kings!
Three good games last night, in what I expect to be three very good series.
I'm not surprised by any of the outcomes. I was glad to see that I wasn't nuts in saying that the Kings will give Vancouver all they can handle. It certainly looks like they will. Kinda makes me wished I had jumped on that parlay (Kings, Devils, Blues - all to win their series. $100 to win $539).
I am surprised by the Penguins result. Not in them losing, but how they lost. Game 2 is a near must for them now. Not because I don't think they can win in Philadelphia, but because I have a tough time seeing them taking 4 of 5 from the Flyers. I still think the winner in this series makes a deep run and may win the Cup.
That was a big win for Nashville last night too. They need the confidence and, more importantly, the wins at home. They'll have a tough time getting wins at the Joe so winning at home is vital.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks