Rating Quarterback Decision Making

Originally posted on Utopia, and modified after discussions with several members over there. The concept does apply to both Pro and College Football in my mind.

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Over the last month or two, I've poured a lot of time and interest into the usefulness of statistics in football. Sabermetrics, if you will, for the gridiron. There are a lot of places already doing this research, such as FootballOutsiders.com, the PFR Blog, and the very interesting book Mathletics.

One of the frequent topics of these analyses is the QB Rating. Most of the writings I've seen have argued that the QB Rating is antiquated and uses numbers that once had meaning but are arbitrary to today's standards. 8.4 x YDS? 330 x TDs - 200 x INTs? Apparently, when the formula was created for the NCAA, the 330 x TDs and 200 x INTs were supposed to negate each other for an "average" passer. That means for every 10 TDs, the "average" passer threw 16.5 INTs. Ew.

Originally, I was going to use QB Rating to be the determination for my quarterback's AWR in my "Historical Players" thread. So I looked at the various suggestions for improving the Passer Rating, but none of them sat quite right with me. They were good for QB Ratings, but weren't what I was looking for. AWR, I believe, should be a measure of a quarterback's decision making.

The Hayes Rating
So I decided to create The Hayes Rating. Hayes, of course, is a hattip to Ohio State coach Wayne Woodrow Hayes, who is credited with saying "There are three things that can happen when you throw a pass, and two of them are bad."

The Hayes Rating is a measure of the things that can go wrong on a pass, and how often a quarterback does one of them, given the number of chances he has.

The original formula: (-Incompletions * Yds Per Comp. - 45*Interceptions - Sack Yards Lost ) / (Attempts + Sacks Taken)
The (modified/final) formula: ( -(Incompletions - Interceptions)*5 - Interceptions*30 - Sack Yards Lost ) / (Attempts + Sacks Taken)
The explanation: The easiest way to measure mistakes by a quarterback is in yardage, so all of these measures is in that unit. Incompletions * 5 yards is based on the fact that, over the last decade in College Football, the average play has gained somewhere between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play. An incompletion is, therefore, a loss on, at least, an 'average' play. I used 5 yards just to make it a rounder number.

Interceptions is subtracted from Incompletions so an Interception doesn't count as both an Incompletion and an Interception.

Interceptions*30 is a modification of the 45 yards per interception cost originally researched in 1988's The Hidden Game of Football. This modification was made to keep a 6:1 ratio of interception cost to incompletion cost, based on other research that would have put the value of an incompletion at 10 yards and interceptions at 60 yards.

Sack Yards lost should be self explanatory. Likewise, dividing everything by Attempts + Sacks Taken should be self explanatory. Sack Yards is left without modification because the sacks average out around 7 lost yards per sack, which puts them as slightly worse than an incompletion. This is a logical outcome.

Now to the results ... the top 15 seasons of 2007-2009:

1. Zach Collaros, 2009: 75%, 2 INTs, 2 sacks in 126 plays
2. Colt McCoy, 2008: 76.7%, 8 INTs, 24 sacks in 457 plays
3. Graham Harrell, 2008: 70.6%, 9 INTs, 13 sacks in 639 plays
4. Dan LeFevour, 2009: 69.7%, 7 INTs, 17 sacks in 473 plays
5. Kellen Moore, 2009: 64.3%, 3 INTs, 5 sacks in 436 plays
6. Graham Harrell, 2007: 71.8%, 14 INTs, 16 sacks in 729 plays
7. Jimmy Clausen, 2009: 68%, 4 INTs, 24 sacks in 449 plays
8. Sam Bradford, 2008: 67.9%, 8 INTs, 11 sacks in 494 plays
9. Case Keenum, 2009: 70.3%, 15 INTs, 16 sacks in 716 plays
10. Kirk Cousins, 2008: 74.4%, 1 INTs, 2 sacks in 45 plays
11. Pat White, 2007: 66.7%, 4 INTs, 8 sacks in 224 plays
12. Tim Tebow, 2007: 66.9%, 6 INTs, 13 sacks in 363 plays
13. Tyler Sheehan, 2009: 64.9%, 7 INTs, 29 sacks in 604 plays
14. Tim Tebow, 2009: 67.8%, 5 INTs, 27 sacks in 341 plays
15. Dennis Dixon, 2007: 67.7%, 4 INTs, 13 sacks in 267 plays

Where do yards and TDs come in that formula? I'm a math guy and I like reading that stuff but I can't get on board with a formula that only accounts for negative plays and doesn't account for the positive TDs and yards produced.

They don't, but that's because I don't want to account for positive plays. Maybe a better title would have been rating quarterback's "bad" decision making, but I'm concerning myself with only negative plays. I'm not looking to offset them with "well, he makes good plays X amount of the time" ... just looking to see who makes the most bad plays.

It's not designed to replace Passer Rating, which would take into account TDs and yards. I have a different formula I've been exploring for that. This is designed to supplement.

OK, cool. I'd like to see your positive rating. One thing that kills the QB rating stat though is 3rd down conversion. Throwing a 5 yard swing pass on 3rd and 8 is a positive but in reality should at least be neutral. I'd love to see a formula factor that in as well as rushing yards for a true QB rating.

Since you said you're a math guy, you should check out this page: http://www.aaronschatz.com/info/methods#dvoa Namely look at the 5th paragraph under DVOA Explained.

Unfortunately, the statistics necessary for what you're talking about is something we don't really have for college football. The NFL stats guys do, and that's where things like DVOA have come from.

I've got my own Passer Rating as well as several others on my laptop. I'll grab them the next time I'm on it.

Rudy, here you go.

Code:

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Creator|Equation
NCAA|[ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ]
Mathletics|1.543 * ((passing yards – sack yards)/pass plays) – 50.0957(interceptions/pass attempts)
The Hidden Game of Football|((Passing Yards – Sack Yards) + 10(touchdowns) – 45(interceptions))/attempts + sacks
Wages of Win|Passing Yards – 3(passing attempts) – 30(interceptions)
JHC (me)|( (passing yards - sack yards) - 3*(attempts + times sacked) - 37.5*(interceptions) ) / games ) * 12 games

---

What were the top QBs in college football last year based on that system?

Rudy, didn't see your reply until just now. Keep in mind that I used my own qualifying method (10 attempts per game, minimum 4 games) rather than the NCAA's official qualifier. So my ranking using their system is not going to match the official one.

NCAA
1. Zach Collaros, Cinc
2. Steven Sheffield, TexT
3. Tim Tebow, Fla
4. Kellen Moore, BoSt
5. Jimmy Clausen, ND
6. Max Hall, BYU
7. Greg Alexander, Haw
8. Kyle Padron, SMU
9. Nathan Enderle, Ida
10. Case Keenum, Hou

Mathletics
1. Zach Collaros, Cinc
2. Josh Nesbitt, GT
3. Andrew Luck, Stan
4. Kellen Moore, BoSt
5. Jimmy Clausen, ND
6. Greg Alexander, Haw
7. Tim Tebow, Fla
8. Ryan Mallett, Ark
9. Nathan Enderle, Ida
10. Kyle Padron, SMU

Hidden Game
1. Zach Collaros, Cinc
2. Kellen Moore, BoSt
3. Josh Nesbitt, GT
4. Andrew Luck, Stan
5. Jimmy Clausen, ND
6. Tim Tebow, Fla
7. Ryan Mallett, Ark
8. Greg Alexander, Haw
9. Nathan Enderle, Ida
10. Kyle Padron, SMU

Wages of Win
1. Case Keenum, Hou
2. Levi Brown, Troy
3. Jimmy Clausen, ND
4. Kellen Moore, BoSt
5. Ryan Mallett, Ark
6. Tyler Sheehan, BGSU
7. Blaine Gabbert, Mo
8. Max Hall, BYU
9. Dan LeFevour, CeMI
10. Jerrod Johnson, TAMU

Mine
1. Case Keenum, Hou
2. Greg Alexander, Haw
3. Jimmy Clausen, ND
4. Levi Brown, Troy
5. Kellen Moore, BoSt
6. Ryan Mallett, Ark
7. Christian Ponder, FLSt
8. Kyle Padron, SMU
9. Tyler Sheehan, BGSU
10. Nathan Enderle, Ida

QB rating to me has always been one of those weird formulas and stats that I never really got, maybe for judging all-time QB's but season in and season out it never made sense to me.

oweb, it gets even more interesting when you find out the history of the QB Rating. The numbers in the formula (8.4 * yards, 330 * TDs, 200 * INTs), I think it was in college, were developed when the TDs and INTs would have cancelled themselves out for the "average" passer. So the "average" Quarterback when the rating was developed would have been throwing 33 INTs for every 20 TDs (because you have to take the inverse to cancel). Essentially a 3:2 ratio! That's just nuts.

Wages of Win's method is probably my favorite. The 3 * Attempts is to recognize that for every pass you throw, you're spending a limited quantity: downs. I think that's a very cool twist.

Another interesting tidbit: In 1979, when the college Passing Efficiency rating was created, the average rating was 104.49. In 2007, it was 127.35.

It should be noted that Jimmy Clausen was in the Top 5 in every category. They guy had a great year on a bad foot. The kid rubs most people the wrong way but he allegedly matured at Notre Dame and I think he will be an absolute steal for the Panthers.

Yep. He should be great for the Panthers, if he can get over the leadership hump. He's incredibly talented, but I never saw any leadership out of him or Golden Tate. I'm expecting Jimmy Clausen to mature and become a leader, and Golden Tate to be a locker room nightmare (like TO, or Randy Moss for a while) for most of his career.

The Hayes Rating is a measure of the things that can go wrong on a pass, and how often a quarterback does one of them, given the number of chances he has.
The formula: ( -(Incompletions - Interceptions)*5 - Interceptions*30 - Sack Yards Lost ) / (Attempts + Sacks Taken)

Minimum requirements: 10 attempts per game played, minimum of 2 games played.

2010 Hayes Rating as 10/2/10 (includes games that have already been played on 9/30 & 10/1)
1. Dan Persa, N.W.
2. Zach Collaros, Cinc
3. Cotton Turner, Hou
4. T.J. Yates, UNC
5. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
6. Ryan Griffin, Tula
7. Terrance Broadway, Hou
8. Ben Chappell, Ind
9. Terrance Cain, Utah
10. Stephen Garcia, SCar
11. Jordan Webb, Kan
12. Jerome Tiller, IASt
13. Ryan Colburn, FrSt
14. Danny O'Brien, Md
15. Scott Tolzien, Wis

40. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt

127. Jacory Harris, MiaF

Wow @ Jacory Harris. Look how high Stephen Garcia is rated and yet Spurrier is always chewing that guy out. You wonder why he doesn't get premium QBs to want to play for him. He's a jerk to most of them.

Well, Spurrier had seemed to be okay with Garcia this year until Stephen had two consecutive fumbles against Auburn. His stat line from that game looked great, but he was a major contributing factor to the Gamecocks loss. Garcia is admittedly a surprise this season ... much like TJ Yates and Ricky Stanzi.

May have had a slight bug in last week's list, but it should be corrected for this week.

Hayes Rating through Oct 2 Games. 10 Att / Gm, Minimum 2 Gm
1. Terrance Cain, Utah
2. Cotton Turner, Hou
3. Dan Persa, N.W.
4. Ben Chappell, Ind
5. Denard Robinson, Mich
6. Colin Kaepernick, Nev
7. Kellen Moore, BoSt
8. Chandler Harnish, NIU
9. Ross Jenkins, LT
10. Cody Endres, Conn
11. Ryan Colburn, FrSt
12. Blaine Gabbert, Mo
13. Nick Foles, Ariz
14. Jordan Wynn, Utah
15. Bryant Moniz, Haw

34. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt

107. Jerrod Johnson, TAMU
122. Joshua Nesbitt, GT
132. Jacory Harris, MiaF
137. Jordan Jefferson, LSU

Chappel got helped out big time by playing Michigan last week. Denard has been making very good decisions but he also missed two wide open receivers last week. The play action for Michigan kills teams since they are so concerned with the run. DR usually hits those easy ones but last week missed a couple.

Chappell definitely got a boost by playing UM, but he was #8 before last week's games.

The top 2 players have only played in 3 games, and 3 others in the Top 15 have only played in 2. There'll be a bit of a shakeup if they don't play in any more. The Top 15 still looks pretty good right now, but this is definitely one rating that gets more defined as the season progresses.

Hayes Rating through Oct 15 Games. 10 Att / Gm, Minimum 2 Gm
Top 15 and other notables

1. Terrance Cain, Utah
2. Cotton Turner, Hou
3. Dan Persa, N.W.
4. Chandler Harnish, NIU
5. Kellen Moore, BoSt
6. Colin Kaepernick, Nev
7. Ben Chappell, Ind
8. Mike Hartline, UK
9. Scott Tolzien, Wis
10. Robert Griffin, Bay
11. Geno Smith, WVU
12. Nick Foles, Ariz
13. Jordan Wynn, Utah
14. Blaine Gabbert, Mo
15. Greg McElroy, Ala

19. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt
24. Stephen Garcia, SCar
27. Ryan Mallett, Ark
30. Denard Robinson, Mich

114. Taylor Martinez, Neb
115. Jerrod Johnson, TAMU
126. Joshua Nesbitt, GT
128. Jacory Harris, MiaF
136. Jordan Jefferson, LSU

Through Week 7 (Oct 16 games). 10 Attempts / Game, Minimum 3 Games

Top 15 and other notables

1. Terrance Cain, Utah
2. Cotton Turner, Hou
3. Dan Persa, N.W.
4. Kellen Moore, BoSt
5. Mike Hartline, UK
6. Ross Jenkins, LT
7. Ben Chappell, Ind
8. Robert Griffin, Bay
9. Nick Foles, Ariz
10. Geno Smith, WVU
11. Scott Tolzien, Wis
12. Blaine Gabbert, Mo
13. Greg McElroy, Ala
14. Jarrett Lee, LSU
15. T.J. Yates, UNC

24. Andrew Luck, Stan
25. Ryan Mallett, Ark
28. Denard Robinson, Mich
29. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt
30. Tyrod Taylor, VT

43. Stephen Garcia, SCar
46. Jake Locker, Wash
74. Cam Newton, Aub

99. Jerrod Johnson, TAMU
100. Jeremiah Masoli, Miss
111. Taylor Martinez, Neb
122. Jacory Harris, MiaF
124. Joshua Nesbitt, GT
133. Jordan Jefferson, LSU

For comparison, the Top 15 in NCAA Passer Rating

1. Kellen Moore, BoSt
2. Terrance Cain, Utah
3. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
4. Cam Newton, Aub
5. Dan Persa, N.W.
6. Stephen Garcia, SCar
7. Greg McElroy, Ala
8. Matt Barkley, USC
9. Andrew Luck, Stan
10. Ryan Mallett, Ark
11. Zach Collaros, Cinc
12. Kirk Cousins, MISt
13. Brandon Weeden, OKSt
14. Bryant Moniz, Haw
15. Tyrod Taylor, VT

Garcia, Newton, Taylor, Luck, Mallett are the obvious differences that stand out.

Denard looked clueless passing the ball this past week. He looked so bad as a passer that I don't think he can lead Michigan to wins over good defenses. He's still very young but last week was very disappointing.

Through Week 9 (Oct 16 games). 10 Attempts / Game, Minimum 3 Games

Top 15 and other notables
1. Terrance Cain, Utah
2. Cotton Turner, Hou
3. Kellen Moore, BoSt
4. Dan Persa, N.W.
5. Ross Jenkins, LT
6. Nick Foles, Ariz
7. Greg McElroy, Ala
8. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
9. Scott Tolzien, Wis
10. Robert Griffin, Bay
11. Landry Jones, Okla
12. Terrance Owens, Tol
13. Colin Kaepernick, Nev
14. Taylor Potts, TexT
15. Jarrett Lee, LSU

19. Andrew Luck, Stan
20. Andy Dalton, TCU
26. T.J. Yates, UNC
27. Tyrod Taylor, VT
38. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt
65. Taylor Martinez, Neb
68. Jake Locker, Wash
69. Aaron Murray, UGa
70. Garrett Gilbert, Tex
77. Jeremiah Masoli, Miss
81. Christian Ponder, FLSt
104. Jerrod Johnson, TAMU
124. Jacory Harris, MiaF
146. Jordan Jefferson, LSU

NCAA's Passer Rating Top 15, for comparison (using my eligibility requirements, not the official requirements)
1. Kellen Moore, BoSt
2. Terrance Cain, Utah
3. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
4. Terrance Owens, Tol
5. Mike Gerardi, Tem
6. Terrance Broadway, Hou
7. Cam Newton, Aub
8. Tyrod Taylor, VT
9. Stephen Garcia, SCar
10. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt
11. Greg McElroy, Ala
12. Ryan Mallett, Ark
13. Dan Persa, N.W.
14. Andrew Luck, Stan
15. Jordan Wynn, Utah

Jake Locker has cost himself millions with his horrid play this year.

Apologies for the delay ... Through Week 12 (Nov 20 games). 10 Attempts / Game, Minimum 3 Games
1. Austin Boucher, MiaO
2. Kellen Moore, BoSt
3. Dan Persa, N.W.
4. Andrew Luck, Stan
5. Nick Foles, Ariz
6. Scott Tolzien, Wis
7. Greg McElroy, Ala
8. Landry Jones, Okla
9. Colin Kaepernick, Nev
10. Ryan Tannehill, TAMU
11. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
12. Robert Griffin, Bay
13. Andy Dalton, TCU
14. Taylor Potts, TexT
15. Chandler Harnish, NIU

Austin Boucher may look totally out of place at the top, but he's thrown in 4 games, has a 72% completion percentage, and has thrown 0 INTs. So, pretty much exactly what I'm looking for.

Other notables:
22. Ryan Mallett, Ark
27. Darron Thomas, Ore
30. T.J. Yates, UNC
32. Stephen Garcia, SCar
35. Cam Newton, Aub
46. Dayne Crist, ND
48. John Brantley, Fla
50. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt
67. Denard Robinson, Mich
71. Jake Locker, Wash
75. Taylor Martinez, Neb

113. Jeremiah Masoli, Miss
125. Jacory Harris, MiaF
133. Jordan Jefferson, LSU

Jordan Jefferson lol.

That is, easily, the most satisfying aspect of these results. I mean, yes, he doesn't even qualify for the NCAA's rating because of lack of passing attempts ... and even if he did, he'd be #97. But STILL. To have someone who seems to be a chicken with his head cut off on the field sometimes ... for him to be #133 in my rating of QB Decision Making ... that is priceless.

Will update with the final Regular Season results after the Army / Navy game. This post is as much a reminder to myself as anything else.

Definitely going to update this after the national championship game. Still a little perturbed with myself that I forgot to do it before the bowls.

Final Hayes Rating of the Season ... through bowl games, Top 15 and Other Notables
10 Attempts / Game, at least 4 Games Played

1. Kellen Moore, BoSt
2. Dan Persa, N.W.
3. Andrew Luck, Stan
4. Greg McElroy, Ala
5. Scott Tolzien, Wis
6. Robert Griffin, Bay
7. Brock Osweiler, AZSt
8. Andy Dalton, TCU
9. Taylor Potts, TexT
10. Austin Davis, USM
11. Morgan Newton, UK
12. Chandler Harnish, NIU
13. Matt Scott, Ariz
14. Colin Kaepernick, Nev
15. Landry Jones, Okla

20. Blaine Gabbert, Mo
24. Austin Boucher, MiaO
25. Dominique Davis, ECU
31. Cam Newton, Aub
32. Ryan Mallett, Ark
34. Ryan Tannehill, TAMU

43. Tyrod Taylor, VT
44. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt
45. Dayne Crist, ND
47. Christian Ponder, FLSt
49. Matt Barkley, USC

55. Denard Robinson, Mich
62. Stephen Garcia, SCar

80. Jake Locker, Wash
93. Garrett Gilbert, Tex
105. Jerrod Johnson, TAMU
116. Taylor Martinez, Neb
131. Jordan Jefferson, LSU
150. Joshua Nesbitt, GT

Complete list, with stats:

Spoiler: show

1. Kellen Moore, BoSt: 71.3%, 6 INTs, 5 sacks in 388 plays
2. Dan Persa, N.W.: 73.5%, 4 INTs, 34 sacks in 336 plays
3. Andrew Luck, Stan: 70.7%, 8 INTs, 6 sacks in 378 plays
4. Greg McElroy, Ala: 70.9%, 5 INTs, 30 sacks in 343 plays
5. Scott Tolzien, Wis: 72.9%, 6 INTs, 13 sacks in 279 plays
6. Robert Griffin, Bay: 67%, 8 INTs, 20 sacks in 474 plays
7. Brock Osweiler, AZSt: 56.9%, 0 INTs, 7 sacks in 116 plays
8. Andy Dalton, TCU: 66.1%, 6 INTs, 8 sacks in 324 plays
9. Taylor Potts, TexT: 67%, 10 INTs, 17 sacks in 568 plays
10. Austin Davis, USM: 62.9%, 6 INTs, 17 sacks in 459 plays
11. Morgan Newton, UK: 58.1%, 0 INTs, 3 sacks in 46 plays
12. Chandler Harnish, NIU: 64.7%, 5 INTs, 12 sacks in 304 plays
13. Matt Scott, Ariz: 71%, 2 INTs, 8 sacks in 101 plays
14. Colin Kaepernick, Nev: 64.9%, 8 INTs, 10 sacks in 369 plays
15. Landry Jones, Okla: 65.6%, 12 INTs, 19 sacks in 636 plays
16. Mike Hartline, UK: 66.2%, 9 INTs, 14 sacks in 419 plays
17. Brandon Weeden, OKSt: 66.9%, 13 INTs, 8 sacks in 519 plays
18. Ben Chappell, Ind: 62.5%, 9 INTs, 11 sacks in 494 plays
19. Nick Foles, Ariz: 67.1%, 10 INTs, 23 sacks in 449 plays
20. Blaine Gabbert, Mo: 63.4%, 9 INTs, 22 sacks in 497 plays
21. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa: 64.1%, 6 INTs, 19 sacks in 364 plays
22. Terrance Cain, Utah: 63.5%, 2 INTs, 5 sacks in 101 plays
23. Ross Jenkins, LT: 62.8%, 6 INTs, 11 sacks in 285 plays
24. Austin Boucher, MiaO: 63.9%, 3 INTs, 9 sacks in 164 plays
25. Dominique Davis, ECU: 64.5%, 16 INTs, 15 sacks in 624 plays
26. Geno Smith, WVU: 64.8%, 7 INTs, 27 sacks in 399 plays
27. T.J. Yates, UNC: 66.8%, 9 INTs, 37 sacks in 459 plays
28. Darron Thomas, Ore: 61.5%, 9 INTs, 9 sacks in 370 plays
29. Adam Froman, Loui: 60.6%, 4 INTs, 10 sacks in 228 plays
30. Terrance Broadway, Hou: 71.4%, 1 INTs, 6 sacks in 48 plays
31. Cam Newton, Aub: 66.1%, 7 INTs, 23 sacks in 303 plays
32. Ryan Mallett, Ark: 64.7%, 12 INTs, 25 sacks in 436 plays
33. Bryant Moniz, Haw: 65%, 15 INTs, 37 sacks in 592 plays
34. Ryan Tannehill, TAMU: 65%, 6 INTs, 12 sacks in 246 plays
35. Tino Sunseri, Pitt: 64.5%, 9 INTs, 21 sacks in 367 plays
36. EJ Manuel, FLSt: 69.9%, 4 INTs, 4 sacks in 97 plays
37. Kirk Cousins, MISt: 66.9%, 10 INTs, 20 sacks in 358 plays
38. Jeff Godfrey, UCF: 66.8%, 8 INTs, 18 sacks in 256 plays
39. Alex Carder, WMU: 63.1%, 12 INTs, 30 sacks in 488 plays
40. Carson Coffman, KSSt: 65%, 7 INTs, 24 sacks in 287 plays
41. G.J. Kinne, Tuls: 59.8%, 10 INTs, 28 sacks in 488 plays
42. Corey Robinson, Troy: 63.6%, 15 INTs, 24 sacks in 529 plays
43. Tyrod Taylor, VT: 59.7%, 5 INTs, 34 sacks in 349 plays
44. Terrelle Pryor, OHSt: 65%, 11 INTs, 19 sacks in 342 plays
45. Dayne Crist, ND: 59.2%, 7 INTs, 16 sacks in 310 plays
46. Ryan Colburn, FrSt: 63.1%, 9 INTs, 36 sacks in 396 plays
47. Christian Ponder, FLSt: 61.5%, 8 INTs, 23 sacks in 322 plays
48. Jordan Wynn, Utah: 62.2%, 10 INTs, 6 sacks in 305 plays
49. Matt Barkley, USC: 62.6%, 12 INTs, 16 sacks in 393 plays
50. Ryan Griffin, Tula: 59.9%, 8 INTs, 27 sacks in 399 plays
51. Ryan Aplin, ARSt: 61.5%, 11 INTs, 23 sacks in 433 plays
52. Robert Marve, Purd: 67.7%, 4 INTs, 6 sacks in 105 plays
53. Kyle Padron, SMU: 59.4%, 14 INTs, 31 sacks in 539 plays
54. Danny O'Brien, Md: 57%, 8 INTs, 13 sacks in 350 plays
55. Denard Robinson, Mich: 62.5%, 11 INTs, 7 sacks in 298 plays
56. Aaron Murray, UGa: 61.1%, 8 INTs, 24 sacks in 366 plays
57. Pete Thomas, COSt: 64.7%, 13 INTs, 44 sacks in 435 plays
58. Matt Christian, NMSU: 48.1%, 2 INTs, 6 sacks in 243 plays
59. Justin Burke, Loui: 58.1%, 3 INTs, 7 sacks in 136 plays
60. John Brantley, Fla: 60.8%, 10 INTs, 21 sacks in 350 plays
61. Zac Dysert, MiaO: 64.7%, 12 INTs, 26 sacks in 369 plays
62. Stephen Garcia, SCar: 64.2%, 14 INTs, 24 sacks in 373 plays
63. Terrance Owens, Tol: 59.5%, 5 INTs, 6 sacks in 169 plays
64. Russell Wilson, NCSt: 58.4%, 14 INTs, 39 sacks in 566 plays
65. Kolton Browning, ULM: 61.9%, 12 INTs, 34 sacks in 412 plays
66. Tyler Hansen, Colo: 68.3%, 6 INTs, 16 sacks in 180 plays
67. Bryan Ellis, UAB: 56.2%, 12 INTs, 7 sacks in 418 plays
68. Cody Hawkins, Colo: 53.7%, 5 INTs, 4 sacks in 235 plays
69. Jake Heaps, BYU: 57.2%, 9 INTs, 18 sacks in 401 plays
70. Spencer Keith, KeSt: 59.1%, 11 INTs, 20 sacks in 384 plays
71. Sean Renfree, Duke: 61.4%, 17 INTs, 23 sacks in 487 plays
72. Adam Weber, Minn: 55.7%, 9 INTs, 17 sacks in 385 plays
73. Chris Relf, MSSt: 58.6%, 6 INTs, 22 sacks in 242 plays
74. Kyle Parker, Clem: 57.5%, 11 INTs, 12 sacks in 353 plays
75. Kevin Riley, Cal: 60%, 6 INTs, 13 sacks in 198 plays
76. Austin Dantin, Tol: 66.1%, 8 INTs, 14 sacks in 206 plays
77. Ryan Lindley, SDSU: 57.7%, 14 INTs, 9 sacks in 430 plays
78. Nathan Scheelhaase, Ill: 58.7%, 8 INTs, 22 sacks in 286 plays
79. Austen Arnaud, IASt: 59%, 10 INTs, 19 sacks in 309 plays
80. Jake Locker, Wash: 55.4%, 9 INTs, 19 sacks in 351 plays
81. Jeff Tuel, WASt: 59.8%, 12 INTs, 48 sacks in 414 plays
82. Ryan Nassib, Syra: 56.4%, 8 INTs, 32 sacks in 390 plays
83. Ryan Katz, ORSt: 60%, 11 INTs, 33 sacks in 388 plays
84. Zach Frazer, Conn: 52.1%, 6 INTs, 13 sacks in 274 plays
85. Ryan Radcliff, CeMI: 60.5%, 17 INTs, 33 sacks in 499 plays
86. Jerome Tiller, IASt: 47.6%, 0 INTs, 13 sacks in 95 plays
87. Marc Verica, UVa: 58.8%, 14 INTs, 21 sacks in 417 plays
88. Wesley Carroll, FIU: 61.6%, 14 INTs, 19 sacks in 386 plays
89. David Piland, Hou: 58.3%, 14 INTs, 4 sacks in 349 plays
90. Trent Steelman, Army: 53.4%, 3 INTs, 8 sacks in 141 plays
91. Tate Forcier, Mich: 64.3%, 4 INTs, 4 sacks in 88 plays
92. Chris Masson, ULL: 52.9%, 6 INTs, 17 sacks in 297 plays
93. Garrett Gilbert, Tex: 59%, 17 INTs, 18 sacks in 459 plays
94. Matt Schilz, BGSU: 60.7%, 14 INTs, 29 sacks in 406 plays
95. Brian Anderson, Mars: 56.8%, 15 INTs, 11 sacks in 395 plays
96. Kawaun Jakes, WeKY: 51.2%, 6 INTs, 29 sacks in 320 plays
97. Tommy Rees, ND: 61%, 8 INTs, 4 sacks in 168 plays
98. Matt Simms, Tenn: 57.9%, 5 INTs, 25 sacks in 220 plays
99. Nick Fanuzzi, Rice: 62.7%, 9 INTs, 18 sacks in 259 plays
100. Richard Brehaut, UCLA: 56.1%, 7 INTs, 14 sacks in 226 plays
101. Austyn Carta-Samuels, Wyo: 61.1%, 8 INTs, 29 sacks in 281 plays
102. Taylor McHargue, Rice: 56.9%, 1 INTs, 7 sacks in 65 plays
103. Omar Clayton, UNLV: 55.8%, 9 INTs, 23 sacks in 306 plays
104. Nathan Enderle, Ida: 56.7%, 16 INTs, 39 sacks in 517 plays
105. Jerrod Johnson, TAMU: 56.6%, 9 INTs, 25 sacks in 304 plays
106. Zach Collaros, Cinc: 58.7%, 14 INTs, 30 sacks in 413 plays
107. Steven Threet, AZSt: 61.9%, 16 INTs, 23 sacks in 359 plays
108. Trevor Vittatoe, UTEP: 54.1%, 13 INTs, 17 sacks in 424 plays
109. Jordan La Secla, SJSU: 59.1%, 16 INTs, 29 sacks in 420 plays
110. Stump Godfrey, UNM: 58.8%, 3 INTs, 11 sacks in 108 plays
111. Ryan Williams, Memp: 56.9%, 10 INTs, 30 sacks in 320 plays
112. Jeremiah Masoli, Miss: 56.4%, 13 INTs, 11 sacks in 307 plays
113. Robert Bolden, PSU: 58%, 7 INTs, 8 sacks in 201 plays
114. Matthew McGloin, PSU: 54.9%, 9 INTs, 3 sacks in 218 plays
115. Tanner Price, Wake: 56.8%, 8 INTs, 19 sacks in 260 plays
116. Taylor Martinez, Neb: 59.2%, 7 INTs, 26 sacks in 222 plays
117. Tim Jefferson, AFA: 51.6%, 6 INTs, 5 sacks in 164 plays
118. Bobby Eveld, SFla: 56%, 3 INTs, 5 sacks in 80 plays
119. Jordan Webb, Kan: 56.5%, 8 INTs, 21 sacks in 235 plays
120. Rob Henry, Purd: 53.1%, 7 INTs, 3 sacks in 165 plays
121. Larry Smith, Vand: 47.4%, 5 INTs, 29 sacks in 276 plays
122. Ricky Dobbs, Navy: 54.7%, 6 INTs, 10 sacks in 160 plays
123. Mike Gerardi, Tem: 59.6%, 8 INTs, 11 sacks in 167 plays
124. Quinn Mecham, Kan: 59.8%, 5 INTs, 12 sacks in 114 plays
125. Chester Stewart, Tem: 53.3%, 5 INTs, 13 sacks in 148 plays
126. Jeff Van Camp, FAU: 57.3%, 13 INTs, 34 sacks in 369 plays
127. B.J. Daniels, SFla: 58.4%, 13 INTs, 22 sacks in 267 plays
128. Brad Gruner, UNM: 48.3%, 2 INTs, 3 sacks in 61 plays
129. Tyler Bray, Tenn: 55.8%, 10 INTs, 16 sacks in 240 plays
130. Diondre Borel, UTSt: 53.2%, 13 INTs, 25 sacks in 339 plays
131. Jordan Jefferson, LSU: 56.5%, 10 INTs, 18 sacks in 227 plays
132. Chas Dodd, Rut: 55.2%, 7 INTs, 45 sacks in 268 plays
133. Colby Cameron, LT: 59.3%, 5 INTs, 5 sacks in 96 plays
134. Brad McGuire, ULL: 54.7%, 3 INTs, 10 sacks in 74 plays
135. Tom Savage, Rut: 51.8%, 3 INTs, 14 sacks in 97 plays
136. Patrick Nicely, Akr: 49.4%, 13 INTs, 33 sacks in 369 plays
137. B.R. Holbrook, UNM: 52.9%, 6 INTs, 6 sacks in 125 plays
138. Brock Mansion, Cal: 48.9%, 5 INTs, 9 sacks in 146 plays
139. Jacory Harris, MiaF: 54.8%, 15 INTs, 10 sacks in 280 plays
140. Chase Rettig, BC: 51.3%, 9 INTs, 16 sacks in 211 plays
141. Stephen Morris, MiaF: 53.6%, 9 INTs, 5 sacks in 158 plays
142. Keith Wenning, BaSt: 54.5%, 14 INTs, 13 sacks in 248 plays
143. Andrew Manley, NMSU: 52.1%, 6 INTs, 12 sacks in 133 plays
144. Alex Gillett, EMU: 55.5%, 13 INTs, 22 sacks in 251 plays
145. Boo Jackson, Ohio: 60.8%, 17 INTs, 21 sacks in 266 plays
146. Tarean Austin, UNM: 48.9%, 4 INTs, 7 sacks in 97 plays
147. Jerry Davis, Buf: 47.7%, 16 INTs, 13 sacks in 311 plays
148. Mike Marscovetra, BC: 58.6%, 4 INTs, 9 sacks in 67 plays
149. Dwight Dasher, MTSU: 57.6%, 18 INTs, 21 sacks in 271 plays
150. Joshua Nesbitt, GT: 37.1%, 4 INTs, 8 sacks in 113 plays
151. Jared Funk, Vand: 47.7%, 6 INTs, 7 sacks in 116 plays
152. Dave Shinskie, BC: 47.9%, 6 INTs, 6 sacks in 102 plays
153. Evan Watkins, N.W.: 51.4%, 5 INTs, 6 sacks in 76 plays
154. Sean Robinson, Purd: 48.4%, 6 INTs, 9 sacks in 100 plays
155. Kevin Prince, UCLA: 44.7%, 5 INTs, 14 sacks in 108 plays
156. Aaron Pankratz, BGSU: 45.5%, 5 INTs, 5 sacks in 82 plays
157. Alex Zordich, Buf: 41.5%, 6 INTs, 14 sacks in 108 plays

Jefferson and LSU's offense cane to life in the bowl game. Curious to see the new OC and how the team is next year.

Welcome back, College Football!

10 attempts/game is the cutoff to get on this list.
As with last year, the formula is ( -(Incompletions - Interceptions)*5 - Interceptions*30 - Sack Yards Lost ) / (Attempts + Sacks Taken)

Top 15 and other Notables (128 eligible quarterbacks)

1. Brandon Mitchell, Ark
2. Ryan Tannehill, TAMU
3. Keith Wenning, BaSt
4. Nick Foles, Ariz
5. Kirk Cousins, MISt
6. Russell Wilson, Wis
7. Terrance Owens, Tol
8. Matt Barkley, USC
9. Robert Griffin, Bay
10. Pete Thomas, COSt
11. Joe Bauserman, OHSt
12. Landry Jones, Okla
13. Bryn Renner, UNC
14. Marshall Lobbestael, WASt
15. Blake Bortles, UCF

18. Case Keenum, Hou
21. Denard Robinson, Mich
22. Chuckie Keeton, UTSt
24. Kellen Moore, BoSt
26. Braxton Miller, OHSt
31. Andrew Luck, Stan
32. Barrett Trotter, Aub
34. James Vandenberg, Iowa

58. Casey Pachall, TCU
62. J.J. McDermott, SMU
73. Darron Thomas, Ore
80. Garrett Gilbert, Tex
84. Stephen Garcia, SCar
89. Jarrett Lee, LSU

96. Tommy Rees, ND
106. Aaron Murray, UGa
116. Brandon Weeden, OKSt
118. AJ McCarron, Ala
121. Dayne Crist, ND
126. Phillip Sims, Ala

The quick takeaway from this is that, early in the season, Interceptions will kill your rating. Makes sense, of course, because a single big mistake isn't offset by as many passes with no mistakes. Bryn Renner is the only QB to crack the top 15 with an interception, and he didn't miss a single other pass (or take any sacks). The only other QB in the Top 40 that threw an interception was Kellen Moore ('nuff said on that one).

Week 2 Hayes Rating (10 attempts/game, 1 game played minimum)

Top 15 and other Notables (137 eligible quarterbacks)
1. Ryan Tannehill, TAMU
2. Robert Griffin, Bay
3. Russell Wilson, Wis
4. Kirk Cousins, MISt
5. Landry Jones, Okla
6. Jeff Godfrey, UCF
7. Nick Foles, Ariz
8. Tyler Bray, Tenn
9. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
10. Blake Bortles, UCF
11. Brandon Mitchell, Ark
12. Marshall Lobbestael, WASt
13. B.R. Holbrook, UNM
14. Keith Wenning, BaSt
15. Kellen Moore, BoSt

16. Case Keenum, Hou
18. Brock Osweiler, AZSt
21. Chuckie Keeton, UTSt
22. Matt Barkley, USC
26. Joe Bauserman, OHSt
29. Casey Pachall, TCU
33. Andrew Luck, Stan
44. Darron Thomas, Ore
48. Jarrett Lee, LSU

56. EJ Manuel, FLSt
67. Brandon Weeden, OKSt
88. AJ McCarron, Ala
89. Tommy Rees, ND

102. Aaron Murray, UGa
105. Logan Thomas, VT
108. Stephen Morris, MiaF
113. Rob Bolden, PSU
115. Taylor Martinez, Neb
123. Stephen Garcia, SCar
126. Denard Robinson, Mich
129. Garrett Gilbert, Tex
130. Dayne Crist, ND

Curious where Ryan Aplin appears on your list...

	C/ATT	Yds	Avg	TD	Int	Sacked
Aplin	19/21	274	13.0	3	1	2

He's 53rd. It's a cumulative list, so the stats I'm using are "Ryan Aplin, ARSt: 73.6%, 2 INTs, 5 sacks in 58 plays". That individual performance probably would have put him in the Top 25.