steelerfan
09-14-2015, 01:50 AM
Some of you may have noticed that certain tinfoil-hat-wearers like to purport that the NFL (in fact ALL college and professional sports) is fixed. This thread will be filled with actual FACTS and DATA that destroy those limp-dick theories.
Let me assure you that anyone who believes that the whole thing is a script falls into at least one of a few categories:
1) Stupid
2) Delusional
3) Mentally Ill
4) Contrary for the sake of being contrary
5) Lonely and seeking attention
6) Unable to fit in anywhere else, seeks acceptance and like-minded peers
7) Self-hater who wants to steal joy from those who are happy
8) Asshole
Now, let's look at some common arguments made by these idiots and discuss how they are bullshit.
CLAIM: The winners are pre-determined.
Really? Explain Hail Marys then. I mean I understand that if it is incomplete the offense was supposed to lose and they are supposed to win if it's completed. I even understand the idea that a botched attempt could be fixed by having the ref throw a flag. What I don't understand is how every single one of them has been perfectly executed. I mean, if the offense could be bailed out by a flag if they accidentally throw the ball out of the back of the end zone or drop the ball then where are all of the games where that has happened? There should be a laundry list of games where the offense "accidentally" botched a Hail Mary, got bailed out by a flag and then scored on the next play from the one yard line. Where are those games? I don't think I've ever seen one.
CLAIM: The results are all to serve the best interest of the books in Vegas.
Really? Care to explain why the books have LOST money on some Super Bowls then? Or, better yet, tell me why the 10 NFL teams that have already played and have had the most money bet on them in the last 30 days went 8-2 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread today? That doesn't make sense. Wouldn't the books want those records reversed? (BTW, this info is available at covers.com and other sites, if you really want to check it out, I'll explain how).
CLAIM: The games are too close and always come down to the end, especially in the playoffs.
Here is some data that I put together using one season from every one of the last 5 decades (I got the scores from footballdb.com):
Percentage of games decided by 7 points or less:
1974: 48.7 (92 of 189)
1984: 42.5 (99 of 233)
1994: 50.2 (118 of 235)
2004: 44.6 (119 of 267)
2014: 38.6 (103 of 267)
Percentage of games decided by 3 points or less:
1974: 20.1 (38 of 189)
1984: 25.3 (59 of 233)
1994: 26.8 (63 of 235)
2004: 22.9 (61 of 267)
2014: 19.5 (52 of 267)
It's weird that the NFL decided that the mid-90s would be the pinnacle of their existence and even weirder that 2014 was so lacking in close games. Certainly, we'll find that the playoffs are ridiculously close, right?
WRONG!
Since 1970 their have been 445 playoff games in the NFL. Of those, 39.6% (176) have been decided by 7 points or less and a measly 18.7% (83) have been decided by 3 points or less.
I have more data but I'm sure that this will suffice for any reasonable person with all of their mental faculties.
Let me assure you that anyone who believes that the whole thing is a script falls into at least one of a few categories:
1) Stupid
2) Delusional
3) Mentally Ill
4) Contrary for the sake of being contrary
5) Lonely and seeking attention
6) Unable to fit in anywhere else, seeks acceptance and like-minded peers
7) Self-hater who wants to steal joy from those who are happy
8) Asshole
Now, let's look at some common arguments made by these idiots and discuss how they are bullshit.
CLAIM: The winners are pre-determined.
Really? Explain Hail Marys then. I mean I understand that if it is incomplete the offense was supposed to lose and they are supposed to win if it's completed. I even understand the idea that a botched attempt could be fixed by having the ref throw a flag. What I don't understand is how every single one of them has been perfectly executed. I mean, if the offense could be bailed out by a flag if they accidentally throw the ball out of the back of the end zone or drop the ball then where are all of the games where that has happened? There should be a laundry list of games where the offense "accidentally" botched a Hail Mary, got bailed out by a flag and then scored on the next play from the one yard line. Where are those games? I don't think I've ever seen one.
CLAIM: The results are all to serve the best interest of the books in Vegas.
Really? Care to explain why the books have LOST money on some Super Bowls then? Or, better yet, tell me why the 10 NFL teams that have already played and have had the most money bet on them in the last 30 days went 8-2 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread today? That doesn't make sense. Wouldn't the books want those records reversed? (BTW, this info is available at covers.com and other sites, if you really want to check it out, I'll explain how).
CLAIM: The games are too close and always come down to the end, especially in the playoffs.
Here is some data that I put together using one season from every one of the last 5 decades (I got the scores from footballdb.com):
Percentage of games decided by 7 points or less:
1974: 48.7 (92 of 189)
1984: 42.5 (99 of 233)
1994: 50.2 (118 of 235)
2004: 44.6 (119 of 267)
2014: 38.6 (103 of 267)
Percentage of games decided by 3 points or less:
1974: 20.1 (38 of 189)
1984: 25.3 (59 of 233)
1994: 26.8 (63 of 235)
2004: 22.9 (61 of 267)
2014: 19.5 (52 of 267)
It's weird that the NFL decided that the mid-90s would be the pinnacle of their existence and even weirder that 2014 was so lacking in close games. Certainly, we'll find that the playoffs are ridiculously close, right?
WRONG!
Since 1970 their have been 445 playoff games in the NFL. Of those, 39.6% (176) have been decided by 7 points or less and a measly 18.7% (83) have been decided by 3 points or less.
I have more data but I'm sure that this will suffice for any reasonable person with all of their mental faculties.