View Full Version : Madden 25 Roster Information
A guy on OS provided me with a full roster database from the latest roster update. He even double checked all the variables that do or do not mean anything in the overall ratings. So I broke down the formula for each position again like I did last year. JJ Watt and AP are both 102 - the only guys over 100 this year. Aaron Rodgers was 104 last year but he's human this year. The calculator is Live. The first tab has all the players for every team. Change their position and/or attributes and the overall automatically re-calculates. The team and position are numeric based (just the way the file was given to me).
Direct download link through OS: http://www.operationsports.com/forums/attachments/madden-nfl-football/65965d1378936742-my-organized-madden-25-player-ratings-spreadsheet-ea_update_2-formulas.zip
Thread link: http://www.operationsports.com/forums/madden-nfl-football/653892-my-organized-madden-25-player-ratings-spreadsheet-2.html#post2045453530
I was in the process of comparing EA's ratings to Pro Football Focus ratings as well. Right now I'm just looking at the OL and have started looking at the guards and tackles. I chose them because they have grades on PFF like run block and pass block that are directly comparable to EA's run and pass blocking. Plus I can compare overall grades as well. It's been interesting.
First I must say that I think one guy doing all the ratings is insane. I think that's too big a job for Donny Moore. Nobody can know the whole league. I can know the Dolphins well but there is no other team I can claim to know that well (not even close). Donny has to know every team that way and it's easy for the hometown fans to spot errors. However I do think he has generally done a pretty solid job. Of the 159 OTs I could look at (actually had ratings at the 25% filter) and are still in M25 (not retired), only 70 can be compared. Most backups did not play enough to get ratings by PFF. Still I would say 60 of those guys are done pretty well with a few outliers on either end. The correlation between those key ratings and the overall ratings is good and a basic regression can be done (along with snap count which is a slighly useful variable). The worst guys at OT were David Diehl and Jake Long - both over-rated big time by EA. More than 10% compared to the way everyone else is done.
Looking at the pass block and run block ratings also shows that some guys reputations got boosts more than PFF scores indicate. PFF isn't perfect and Donny might feel Jake Long will bounce back. But some guys are just plain off. OG John Jerry on Miami was probably the worst rated guy of all players I've looked at so far. Because he's big and fat he gets a good run block rating and a bad pass block rating. The opposite is true in reality though. The ratings for those starters are a bit high imo too.
I may write up some reports comparing EA's ratings and PFF's overall ratings. Overall many of the guys fell in line but reputation guys seemed to be inflated. Baluga on GB is another one. His ratings this year are more based on 2011 and reputation and I can't really complain that much given he is hurt and who knows if he would have bounced back.
skipwondah33
09-12-2013, 07:33 AM
Goodness man, alot of info
I'll check this out here today
Thanks for posting.
That's nothing on info. Check this out. The tables look like crap, I might try cleaning that up later.
Donny Moore vs PFF 2012 on the OL
INTRODUCTION
In all of the analysis of Donny Moore (EA) vs. PFF 2012 it should be noted that only grades from PFF with a 25% filter were used. This means many backups are not compared because there wasn’t enough data. Some of the discrepancies may also be as a result of Donny Moore trying to capture expected improvements from last year. A rookie last year is expected to be better this season so one could expect a higher grade in Madden 25 than 2012’s Pro Football Focus grades. It should also be pointed out that it would be very difficult to do straight conversions from PFF to EA’s database since EA uses many variables but a good comparison can identify potential issues.
OFFENSIVE GUARD
The overall, run block and pass block ratings used in Madden are very comparable to the Pro Football Focus Overall, run block and pass block ratings when you examine them. The number of snaps each OL plays also has a minor role but it’s largely about the grades. We have 62 players with enough data to compare.
Pass Blocking
The pass blocking grades looked really good when you compare the two data sets. There is an 83.5% correlation between the two. Based on 62 guards (basically the average of all starting guards) the average pass block rating is just over 81.
The regression formula works out to be EAPassBlock = 76.1 + 0.87 * PFFPassBlock + 0.005 * snaps.
So basically you start at 76. If you played 1000 snaps last year (about average for a starter) you get a 5 point bonus which brings you to the average 81. Then you add PFF’s pass block rating which centers around 0. A good pass blocker is higher and a bad pass blocker is lower. This formula gives very good results in terms of matching up EA vs PFF. 79% of the players are within 5% of each other this way. I think that is excellent. There are some outliers.
Over-rated List
Player EA Pass Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Carl Nicks 90 81.6
Louis Vasquez 97 88.7
Danny Watkins 79 72.6
Harvey Dahl 92 84.8
Kevin Zeitler 94 89.1
Under-rated List
Player EA Pass Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
John Greco 74 80.1
John Moffitt 72 79.0
Nate Livings 73 80.2
Matt Slauson 76 84.6
John Jerry 71 84.5
The worst player rated by far is John Jerry. He’s a big Miami Dolphins guard but despite his size has always been a good pass blocker and poor run blocker. EA has this reversed as we will also see him show up as an outlier in the over-rated run blocking list.
Run Blocking
The average run blocking grade EA uses is higher than pass blocking at 84.4 for these 62 players. We still have a very high correlation between EA and PFF’s run blocking grades at 82.2%. The interesting thing here is that snaps were not significant so the formula is very simple to compare each other.
EARunBlock = 83.9 + PFFRunBlock. It’s very simple. If you scored a 0 by PFF your EA run block rating would be 83.9 for these 62 starters. 82% of the players have grades that are within 5% of each other (almost match). There are some outliers but most aren’t too bad. It should be noted that both Nicks and Mankins were hurt and under-performed in 2012 which is reflected in the PFF rankings.
Over-Rated List
Player EA Run Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
John Jerry 86 78.8
Logan Mankins 95 87.6
Matt Slauson 88 81.5
Carl Nicks 93 86.8
Jeff Allen 81 76.7
Under-rated List
Player EA Run Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Rob Sims 81 85.6
Paul McQuistan 76 81.0
Chris Kuper 76 83.1
Daryn Colledge 73 79.9
Charlie Johnson 73 81.1
OVERALL GRADES
How do EA’s overall grades compare when PFF’s overalls? The overall ratings have an 83% correlation although only 69.4% are within 5% of each other’s grades on the final regression. This is worse than the run and pass blocking results but still pretty decent imo. The average overall EA grade is 81.2 and the formula from PFF to get there is 74.8 + 0.48*overallPFF + 0.006*snaps. So a guard with 1000 snaps gets a 6 point boost putting their overall grade at 80.8 plus a half a point (up/down) for each overall PFF point. The fact the PFF factor is only 0.48 hints that PFF has a wide spread of values while EA’s range is half as big.
When looking at the over and under-rated list you can see Carl Nicks leads the way. This is a result of his past ratings. 2012 was a bad year for him along with injury. I can understand EA keeping him high. Same goes for Mankins and the rest aren’t too bad. Evan Mathis would have to be capped at 99 so nothing EA can do there. The under-rated list isn’t that bad either. Nate Livings has the biggest beef but last year was a career year for him. For Nate 2012 was by far his best PFF rating in his career.
Over-Rated List
Player EA Overall PFF 2012 Suggestion
Carl Nicks 95 81.7
Logan Mankins 94 83.9
Andy Levitre 96 89.2
Harvey Dahl 89 83.0
Kory Lichtensteiger 80 75.3
Under-rated List
Player EA Overall PFF 2012 Suggestion
Tyronne Green 74 79.0
John Greco 77 83.5
Evan Mathis 98 106.3
Clint Boling 78 85.0
Nate Livings 78 86.8
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
The overall, run block and pass block ratings used in Madden are very comparable to the Pro Football Focus Overall, run block and pass block ratings when you examine them. The number of snaps each OL plays also has a minor role but it’s largely about the grades. We have 71 players with enough data to compare. The average ratings for EA are 84.0 pass block, 84.2 run block and 80.7 overall for these 71 tackles. I do feel that EA’s ratings are not spread enough when the average pass and run block for 71 tackles in the league is 84.
Pass Blocking
EA’s Pass blocking is correlated with PFFs rating at 88.6%. That is very close!
The formula is EAPassBlock = 77.6 + 0.63*PFFPassblock + 0.005*snaps. So again 1000 snaps (typical for a starter) adds 5 points to their rating. 76% of the players ratings were within 5% of each other. I think these results are very good. Some of the players on the over-rated list did not have good years last year due to injury potentially. Jake Long had the worst year of his career and Bulaga did not play well in his short season either. We’ll see if they bounce back.
Over-Rated List
Player EA Pass Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Tyron Smith 90 80.8
Jake Long 91 83.2
Dennis Kelly 82 75.9
Bryan Bulaga 86 80.2
David Stewart 95 89.8
Under-rated List
Player EA Pass Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Austin Howard 73 79.9
Khalif Barnes 73 80.2
Phil Loadholt 79 87.4
Winston Justice 74 83.3
Doug Free 69 80.3
Run Blocking
EA’s Run blocking is correlated with PFFs rating at 81.8%. That is good.
The formula is EARunBlock = 80.4 + 0.70*PFFRunblock + 0.045*snaps. So again 1000 snaps (typical for a starter) adds 4 points to their rating. 87% of the players ratings were within 5% of each other! I think these results are very good. Some of the players on the over-rated list did not have good years last year due to injury potentially. Jake Long had the worst year of his career and Bulaga did not play well in his short season either. We’ll see if they bounce back.
Over-Rated List
Again, Bulaga was dinged last year (still possibly inflated) and Jonathon Martin was a rookie. These could make sense. But Joe Thomas has had a negative run blocking grade for two straight years on PFF. I think his reputation as an elite pass blocker and elite player gives him too much benefit of the doubt. He hasn’t been a great run blocker since 2009.
Player EA Run Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Bryan Bulaga 92 81.0
David Diehl 86 80.6
Joe Thomas 88 82.7
Phil Loadholt 97 92.1
Jonathan Martin 84 80.2
Under-rated List
Jeff Linkenbach had a better year for him and is not a good player but his ratings are backwards similarly to John Jerry at G. EA gives him pass and run block ratings of 78 and 68 when the PFF ratings indicate they should be 74 and 78 respectively. His run block is too low by 10 points.
Player EA Run Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Eric Winston 85 89.3
Ryan Harris 75 80.2
J'Marcus Webb 76 83.8
Dennis Kelly 70 77.4
Jeff Linkenbach 68 77.9
Overall
EA’s overall rating has an 84.9% correlation with PFFs overall rating. That is very strong.
The formula is EAOverall = 73 + 0.42 * PFFOverall + 0.007*snaps. So the base is 73 and a 1000 snap player gets a 7 point bonus to get to 80 overall. Then the overall rating of PFF adjusts EA’s overall rating. Again, PFF’s ratings are more spread as a full point difference adjusts EA’s rating point by less than half. Only 66% of these tackles are within 5% of their overall so it’s a bit lower than the other attributes. A few of the over-rated players hurt this number.
Over-Rated List
Diehl is over-rated period by EA. Bell had a terrible year last year and may bounce back. We’ve already discussed injury riddled/poor seasons by Long and Bulaga. Again, these are what the ratings should have been just going by their 2012 performance as rated by PFF.
Player EA Overall PFF 2012 Suggestion
David Diehl 85 73.3
Demetress Bell 75 65.6
Jake Long 88 77.7
David Stewart 90 82.3
Bryan Bulaga 82 75.7
Under-rated List
I honestly know almost nothing about any of the guys on this list lol. They didn’t play a lot of snaps as four of them had less than 450 snaps. Only Bradfield had a lot at almost 750. I do think Bradfield got short changed. Willie Smith is horrible at pass protection but his run blocking is average. Looking at the predicted values I believe it’s the other ratings EA uses for him that causes him to be too low (like strength, agility, etc). Nothing too awful.
Player EA Overall PFF 2012 Suggestion
Ryan Harris 70 77.5
Cameron Bradfield 68 75.6
Donald Stephenson 65 72.7
Jonathan Scott 64 71.8
Willie Smith 60 68.3
CENTER
The overall, run block and pass block ratings used in Madden are very comparable to the Pro Football Focus Overall, run block and pass block ratings when you examine them. The number of snaps each OL plays also has a minor role but it’s largely about the grades. We have 29 players with barely enough data to compare. The average ratings for EA are 82.9 pass block, 86.0 run block and 82.2 overall for these 29 centers.
Pass Blocking
EA’s Pass blocking is correlated with PFFs rating at 81%.
The formula is EAPassBlock = 81.4 + 1*PFFPassblock + 0.003*snaps. So again 1000 snaps (typical for a starter) adds 3 points to their rating. The base rating then is 82 for 1000 snaps and the ratings are using the same weight as PFF. +1 from PFF adds a full point to the overall. 76% of the players ratings were within 5% of each other which is very good.
The over-rated list isn’t that bad. Scott Wells gets a boost from his reputation and play prior to 2012.
Over-Rated
Player EA Pass Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Scott Wells 87 81.4
Maurkice Pouncey 88 83.6
Brian De La Puente 92 87.7
Will Montgomery 90 85.9
Garza is the most under-rated in terms of pass blocking but his pass blocking was bad in 2011 and 2010. It got a lot better in 2012 (good in 2009 too). I can see Donnie using his history to influence that decision but he may be too low. Maybe he didn’t like his commercial with Cutler last year?
Under-Rated
Player EA Pass Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Robert Turner 82 87.1
Fernando Velasco 78 83.1
Ryan Cook 74 80.5
Roberto Garza 77 84.9
Run Blocking
EA’s Pass blocking is correlated with PFFs rating at 81%.
The formula is EAPassBlock = 78.3 + 0.737*PFFRunblock + 0.005*snaps. So again 1000 snaps (typical for a starter) adds 5 points to their rating. The base rating then is 82.3 for 1000 snaps and the ratings are using a slightly lower weight than PFF. 90% of the players ratings were within 5% of each other which is excellent.
Over-Rated
It appears Donny Moore sees Garza as a better run blocker than he is and a worse pass protector than he is. He shows up in both pass and run blocking outlier lists. Similar to John Jerry his ratings would be much better if they were simply swapped. Samson Satele is not a great run blocker but his rating is only off three points and he’s the fourth worst of 29. Pretty darn good.
Player EA Run Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Roberto Garza 83 77.4
Fernando Velasco 94 88.1
Maurkice Pouncey 89 84.9
Samson Satele 86 82.9
Under-Rated
I listed the worst four but they are all really good. The only outlier would be Dominc Raiola imo. He’s largely been viewed as an undersized center most of his career. He was merely average at run blocking last year with the previous two years being a large negative. He’s also older so I don’t see a problem with this. His pass blocking is a near perfect match.
Player EA Run Block PFF 2012 Suggestion
Ryan Wendell 98 102.5
Robert Turner 78 81.6
Jeff Faine 69 72.4
Dominic Raiola 77 84.3
Overall
EA’s overall rating has an 82.7% correlation with PFFs overall rating. That is very good.
The formula is EAOverall = 71 + 0.442 * PFFOverall + 0.009*snaps. So the base is 71 and a 1000 snap player gets a 9 point bonus to get to 80 overall. The snap bonus seems high. Then the overall rating of PFF adjusts EA’s overall rating. Again, PFF’s ratings are more spread as a full point difference adjusts EA’s rating point by less than half. 72% of these centers are within 5% of their overall so it’s decent.
Over-Rated
Scott Wells was over-rated in pass protection and that has helped make him the most over-rated player. I believe Satele is a bit over-rated as is Mangold. Mangold’s numbers from PFF have slid each of the last three years.
Player EA Overall PFF 2012 Suggestion
Scott Wells 80 72.6
Maurkice Pouncey 88 82.7
Samson Satele 78 73.8
Nick Mangold 94 89.9
Under-Rated
A few centers that didn’t play a ton are under-rated. Ryan Cook is the worst at almost 10 points. He’s not a great player and last year was his best. He graded out well in run blocking and EA grades this well but short changes him in his pass blocking.
Player EA Overall PFF 2012 Suggestion
Ted Larsen 73 77.5
A.Q. Shipley 73 78.3
Robert Turner 72 79.4
Ryan Cook 72 81.2
WolverineJay
09-12-2013, 06:54 PM
Excellent info Rudy. I know that was a good deal of work so I took the 5 minutes and read it all. I agree that Raiola is and always has been under-sized and the only reasons he stayed in the NFL as long as he has is because he's smart (makes good line calls) and he plays for the Lions, lol.
Thanks Jay. It took awhile but I found it interesting. The ratings are pretty good but these are just the starters. It's less than half the guys at the positions that Donny doesn't even have data on. I couldn't imagine doing all these guys. I'm guessing he just transfers a lot of the same numbers over from the previous year. That's something I could check as well lol.
I could post the entire database of T,G and Cs with their predicted ratings for pass blocking, run blocking and overall ratings if you want to see it. I've got it on my work computer. Just have to clean it up and convert it to excel.
Donny Moore re-tweeted this post that I sent at him. He must have liked it. I'll be curious to see if John Jerry has his ratings reversed on the next update along with any other potential change. Nothing crazy really.
Cornerback Tackling
Unlike the OL who were very consistent when comparing PFF ratings to EA blocking and overall ratings, the tackle ratings of the CBs in Madden 25 are very inconsistent. The average tackle rating for a CB is just under 58. The range in EA's game is from 33 to 78. I took the tackle and missed tackle data from PFF, both from an overall perspectice and only from a running down perspective. Both give me results that don't match up well so I took the overall sample for this analysis.
To keep this in perspective, CBs miss about 12% of their tackle attempts in the NFL. This is when looking at combined solo, assisted and then missed tackle attempts. The formula I come up with using PFF stats to try to adhere to EA's ratings is poor. It basically starts the best CB off with a rating of just under 64 (this is the max but not a bad maximum tackling ability for CBs imo) and then subtracts roughly 1/2 a point for every 1% of missed tackles. So if you miss 10% of your tackles, which is slightly better than normal, your EA Tackle rating would be 59 (lose 5 points for the 10%). If you whiff 20% of the time (you would be in the worst 10% of the 102 CBs) your tackle rating would be 54. That isn't a big spread in ratings. It would calibrate better if EA was more consistent imo.
EA puts some very high numbers on a lot of players that don't seem to warrant it. The reverse is also true. A few examples. Terrance Newman does not miss a lot of tackles, even when looking over the last three years. In 2012 he made 69 solo tackles, 6 assists and only missed 3 tackles for a paltry 3.8% miss rate. EA gave him a 55 for tackling which is below the average 58 they hand out. Chris Houston, Dmitri Patterson and Casey Hayward all have tackle ratings in the 50s despite ranking in the Top 10 of 102 CBs in tackling percentage. Conversely, Jimmy Smith has always been a poor tackler and was given a 69 tackle rating! That ranked 6th for EA despite 20.5% of his tackle attempts which puts him at 94. William *** had a bad year with 12 missed tackles last year (he was better the previous two years) and got an EA rating of 66 despite ranking 92nd. Nate Clements has missed 7 tackles each of the last year and ranks 80 out of 102 in tackling percentage but has a 69 tackle rating which ranks 10th.
Just too many inconsistencies in the tackle rating for CBs imo.
Here is a link to all of the results for CB: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArB9QSYxv2ZGdG5YTUh2VERjUVMzMWRJay1KWFROR lE#gid=0
Wide Receivers Catching
While CB and tackling were tough to match from the tackling percentage numbers on PFF, the WR catch rating and the corresponding stats were a great match. Looking at 73 of the tops WRs (all had at least 50 targets in 2012) the average catch rating by EA was 86.5 and ranged from 74 to 97 so it's not a huge gap. The formula I used with PFF stats predicted numbers that range from 77 to 99 and average 86.5 as well (the averages should match in this exercise, that's the goal). Over 86% of the players have ratings that are within 5% and almost 99% are within 10% of each other! That's unbelievable.
The formula used is EACatch = 73.5 + 0.273*Reception -0.542*Drops. Yes, the total number of receptions has a big impact on the catch rating. While some would argue that hands are not dependent on the number of catches I would argue that you throw the ball to the guys that can catch and don't throw it the guys who drop it. What this formula says is everyone starts out just under 74. You basically add 1/4 point for every catch and subtract 1/2 a point for every drop. So if you caught 80 balls and dropped 10 your catch rating would be 90.
The numbers match very well when doing this. Andre Johnson ranks first in both EA and PFF ratings. Louis Murphy ranks last in this group of 73 with a 74 EA catch rating. He's third last in the projected PFF numbers at 79. There are some outliers of course. Jordy Nelson dropped 14 balls last year but EA has given him a 93 catch rating (as opposed to the 83 suggested). He did have a great 2011 year but that was the only year Jordy didn't drop the ball very much. We'll see how he does this year. Greg Jennings is over-rated due to his lack of receptions in this system but that reflects more on the error of the formula I used rather than EA. He only dropped 2 balls on 36 catches so EA has him with hands rated at 89 as opposed to 82 and rightfully so. Dez Bryant appears over-rated as he dropped 11 balls last year and still tied with Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne for #1 with a 97 catch rating. On the other end poor Greg Little's run of dropsies early in his career has failed to impress Donny Moore. While not having good (or even average) hands, he dropped 9 passes last year against 53 catches which wasn't horrible. His EA rating of 76 (ranked 70/73) is a tad harsh as PFF suggests 83 (ranked 51/73).
It's not a perfect system since it doesn't track deep ball drops vs. short drops but the numbers are very consistent here. I really don't see any major differences other than Jordy Nelson and he may rebound to his 2011 form. Here is a link to all of the WR data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArB9QSYxv2ZGdDdwdmdndkZ6UzhFWl8xeUFtR3VMa Xc#gid=0
JBHuskers
09-13-2013, 04:34 PM
I'm guessing this thread is the reason why there is so much traffic in the Madden forum right now :D
I'm guessing this thread is the reason why there is so much traffic in the Madden forum right now :D
Traffic as in views? Is that something only admins can see?
I'm assuming you guys auto RE-tweet anything with your link as well?
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