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fsuprime
07-14-2010, 10:21 PM
just found this tidbit about how recruits are treated by the game once they are on our rosters, i.e. how they progress on avg. pretty cool stuff


So last night I did some recruiting research to see both the caliber of player available, and also what players are likely to be toward the end of their playing career.

I took 134 players from Pac-10 teams and followed them from their freshman season until they graduated four or five years later (keep in mind I'm only including players who played out their eligibility - i removed about 10 players who either transfered, were cut or went pro).

There were some interesting findings ...

- Players this year don't have the same kind of rapid progression as in years past. The most any player jumped from one season to the next was 6 points.

- The better a player is coming in doesn't mean he'll progress faster. While most of the top per-season progressers were highly rated recruits who were high-70s freshman, some low 60s snuck into the mix as well. There are also some guys who were rated in the high 70s who barely progressed at all. So a players rating coming in doesn't necessarily reflect the pace he'll progress.

- Redshirting a player really just gives him an extra year of average progression. Players who redshirt don't progress at a fast or slower pace later.

- Year to year progression is pretty steady. The average player progress 2.73 points a year. In Year 2 its 2.60, Year 3 2.83, Year 4 2.76, Year 5 2.61.

- The high yearly average progression was 5.33 a season (for a non-kicker type). The low, 1.

- You can use this to try and figure out what a player might look like, best, average and worse case scenario once you get them and also determine a redshirt or not.

- The number of points a player progresses in Year 2 is a pretty good indication of his total progression. 78 of the 134 players had an average yearly progression with +- 0.50 of their first season progression. So if a guy progressed 4 points in year two, he is very likely to progress between 4.5 and 3.5 points a season for his career.

- Only 12 of the 134 swayed more than 1 point per year away from what they did their first year progressing.

- So as a result after one season you can get a pretty good picture of what a given player is going to look like down the road. If he had a 1 point increase you might not want to hold onto him hoping he'll be awesome as a senior. However if you have a 65 overall player that jumps 4 points, he might be a solid backup/roll player a few years down the road.

- The average player recruited sees and increase of 10 points overall from freshman year to graduation. The high was 18 points, the low 3. Just to prove the high caliber busts, the 3 point increase was an Oregon TE that was a 78 overall freshman and graduated an 81 overall.

- Might not be a big enough sample size, but playing time might not be a huge aspect of this. USC had two good progressing recruit QBs who both finished over 90 overall despite only one of them getting playing time.

Quick example ...

HB Richardson recruited by USC. He came in as a freshman as a 76 overall.

Using the info above we can tell he's likely to become an 85 overall by the time he graduates (3 years of progression at 2.73 points a year). Best case he's a 92 overall (3 years at 5.33). And if he's a flop, 79 overall (3 years at 1 overall).

We can also use the info to make decisions about redshirting him. Add another year to all of that and we've got likely got an 87 overall, a 94 overall or an 80 overall.

After season one we see he progresses 4 points overall to 80. From that we can be pretty certain he'll be an 84 overall junior and an 88 overall senior with a potential to go up or down 1. (He actually jumps 6 going into his junior year and ends up a 90).

Here's the background info in Excel and PDF format ...

http://www.blygilmore.com/Recruiting.xls
http://www.blygilmore.com/Recruiting.pdf
__________________

link for thread is http://www.traditionfootball.com/forums/showthread.php?p=237861#post237861

JeffHCross
07-15-2010, 12:37 AM
Wow. Down from an average of ~4 to 2.73. Thanks FSU, that'll give me a couple things to look at with my team ... don't think it'll effect 'em much, but great info.

fsuprime
07-15-2010, 10:10 AM
true, yea i was shocked at how little improvement i saw just in my 1 year of dynasty i simulated, but really im more interested in this just for recruiting...with this and that other 'study' i linked in the main thread showing that there just were not many ELITE teams at all in years 6 and 7 of an dynasty i think the days of all of us have 17 90ovr + seniors and juniors will be long gone after the base rosters have been removed and filled with recruited players.

AustinWolv
07-15-2010, 11:02 AM
Great info!

It would be interesting to see how those progression numbers related to the recruit's potential rating when being recruited.

Papa LoneStar
07-15-2010, 01:35 PM
I really like the sound of this. We know that some years are labeled as "down" when comparing them to other seasons in a decade. Also, you will definitely have to take that 3* instead of that 4* if he fits what you are trying to do offensively and defensively. Should be a GREAT year!

fsuprime
07-15-2010, 02:24 PM
the best part of this is i really dont think we will have to put in rules about players leaving and/or limiting recruiting 5*s or whatever (not that we were 100% going to do this) but i dont see any reason to even bother, the only thing we need to figure out is Varisty or AA for recruiting difficulty, im leaning towards AA but its up to the group (and i think we could change this at any time to if we find it to easy or to hard)

gschwendt
07-15-2010, 02:38 PM
I think with this group of teams, we'd be better served using AA but just one man's opinion in limited testing.

Escobar
07-15-2010, 10:23 PM
Yea, I'd say AA. It seems more realistic

psusnoop
07-16-2010, 08:06 AM
I agree with AA. I know my friends around home here that I play in one with them (bunch of cheeseballs, but a blast to play with) want everything on heisman. I'll keep you guys posted as to how that goes. We are all C+ and B- teams.

Rudy
07-16-2010, 08:37 AM
That was really interesting. So if I see little improvement the first year I'm dumping his ass on the depth chart.
:)

Papa LoneStar
07-22-2010, 01:29 PM
I did a practice run through recruiting for a whole season....putting Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma in the Pac-10 in place of Washington, Washington State, Arizona, and Arizona State. Simming....we (Texas) went 7-6....losing to Nevada in the Sun Bowl....sad. I learned to lean on your pipelines....definitely plan on working on a Texas/California/Florida pipeline....at least 2 of the 3. I got my butt kicked by LSU for at least 4 recruits during the season....2 in the state of Texas. Here's my #1 class (got a "best class ever" trophy from PSN....lol)
**************

5* DT Brian Casey
6'1" 280
Brookfield, IL
#1 overall, #1 DT
82 overall DT
85 strength, 89 power moves, 86 block shedding, 84 pursuit, 81 acceleration
Other Offers: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida
*************
5* DE Jason Smith
6'3" 243
Crystal, MN
#3 overall, #1 DE
82 overall DE
85 speed
84 acceleration
83 strength
85 block shedding
84 power moves
Other Offers: n/a
*************
5* QB Jeremy Muse
6'7" 237
Lake Serene, WA
#4 overall, #1 QB
81 overall QB
91 throwing power
84 throwing accuracy
66 awareness
79 carrying
Other Offers: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State
*************
5* CB Robert Jackson
5'10" 175
Opelika, AL
#9 overall, #2 CB
78 overall CB
92 speed
92 acceleration
92 zone coverage
89 play recognition
86 jumping
Other Offers: Auburn, Western Kenntucky
*************
5* T Charlie Culver
6'7" 309
Groves, TX
#12 overall, #1 T
79 overall T
86 strength
91 acceleration
67 speed
76 pass block
73 run block
Other Offers: n/a
*************
5* T Eric Harris
6'5" 276
Peterborough, CN
#16 overall, #2 T
80 overall T
85 strength
92 acceleration
61 awareness
78 pass block
77 run block
Other Offers: Penn State, Oklahoma
*************
5* G James Craig
6'2" 308
Nacogdoches, TX
#17 overall, #2 G
82 overall G
78 strength
95 acceleration
87 run block
77 pass block
Other Offers: LSU, Florida, Ohio State, Oklahoma
*************
5* RB Tim Hutchinson
6'3" 205
South Houston, TX
#19 overall, #1 RB
81 overall RB
88 speed
85 elusiveness
86 juke move
82 break tackle
82 acceleration
Other Offers: Florida, LSU
*************
4* DE Gary Thomas
6'4" 241
DeSoto, TX
#33 overall, #5 DE
80 overall DE
82 strength
77 speed
92 block shedding
86 pursuit
76 acceleration
Other Offers: N/A
*************
4* T Tony Kelly
6'5" 281
Evergreen Park, IL
#55 overall, #4 T
79 overall T
85 strength
95 acceleration
71 speed
78 run block
71 pass block
Other Offers: n/a
*************
4* MLB Lamar Huff
5'11" 225
Altoona, PA
#62 overall, #3 MLB
76 overall
83 speed
88 acceleration
76 agility
85 pursuit
84 hit power
Other Offers: Auburn, Penn State, Kent State, Akron
*************
4* FS Steve Davis
6'5" 205
Rowlett, TX
81 overall FS
97 speed
93 acceleration
85 tackle
90 stamina
82 agility
#69 overall, #1 FS
Other Offers: Oklahoma, LSU, Penn State
*************
4* MLB Andy Nichols
6'2" 234
Vero Beach, FL
#76 overall, #5 MLB
79 overall MLB
85 speed
89 acceleration
85 pursuit
85 hit power
80 block shedding
Other Offers: Miami, Florida, Florida State
*************
4* OLB Terrance Bonds
6'4" 222
Mount Pleasant, TX
#77 overall, #8 OLB
78 overall OLB
83 speed
98 acceleration
88 block shedding
84 pursuit
79 play recognition
Other Offers: Georgia, Florida State
*************
4* SS Ryan Gibbs
6'6" 198
Haltom City, TX
#104 overall, #10 SS
79 overall OLB
77 speed
87 acceleration
88 zone coverage
89 hit power
88 pursuit
Other Offers: Miami, Auburn, Georgia, Nebraska
*************
4* T Josh Gonzalez
6'6" 299
Odessa, TX
#167 overall, #12 T
66 overall T
90 acceleration
72 strength
69 awareness
71 pass block
69 run block
Other Offers: Texas Tech
*************
4* G Andy Britton
6'4" 306
Steubenville, OH
#219 overall, #15 G
67 overall G
93 acceleration
70 strength
73 awareness
72 run block
70 pass block
Other Offers: LSU
*************
4* FS Stephon Brant
6'1" 188
La Porte, TX
#221 overall, #12 FS
75 overall SS
88 speed
93 acceleration
93 tackle
83 hit power
74 zone coverage
Other Offers: Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU
*************
4* OLB LaMont McDonald
6'1" 198
Henderson, TX
#278 overall, #23 OLB
76 overall OLB
77 speed
88 acceleration
82 tackle
79 pursuit
85 strength
Other Offers: Oklahoma, Auburn
*************
I had the #1 class with eight 5* and eleven 4*....OU was #2 with 3-8-7....USC at #3 with 1-12-7....followed by Ohio State and TCU (0-8-12-5)....very impressive for them to get a top 5 class without a 5*....maybe we should move them to a big conference, because I smell a North Texas brewing....LOL.
*************
I only targeted 3 prospects in the offseason....DE Smith who committed on the spot....and MLB Huff and G Britton....it was very nice to see both wait until week 4 for a visit....hopefully we see that a lot to have those signing day decisions more often.
*************
One thing I liked was that safety recruits were the same rating at both spots....just dropped somewhere between 8-15 of awareness....which didn't make a huge difference as they were in the 50s for awareness.
*************
For you guys who know how I love to play defense....you know those safeties and middle linebackers are my FAVORITE recruits....especially Steve Thomas....my GOODNESS!!!!
*************
I CAN'T wait for this to start! I'm very excited....especially if I can snag a 1st season class ANYwhere close to this one....lol.

Oneback
07-22-2010, 01:51 PM
Looks like a good class.

fsuprime
07-22-2010, 02:00 PM
yep, should be batted down some with 12 users going at it, and i think TCU might be in for a surprise as well with how many ppl will be all up in TX for pipelines

JeffHCross
07-22-2010, 02:22 PM
Papa, was that All-American or Varsity?

Papa LoneStar
07-22-2010, 03:07 PM
All-American....I assumed that is what we'll be recruiting on so I wanted to give it a swing....man....I hope I find a FS like that this season.

skipwondah33
07-22-2010, 03:34 PM
the best part of this is i really dont think we will have to put in rules about players leaving and/or limiting recruiting 5*s or whatever (not that we were 100% going to do this) but i dont see any reason to even bother, the only thing we need to figure out is Varisty or AA for recruiting difficulty, im leaning towards AA but its up to the group (and i think we could change this at any time to if we find it to easy or to hard)

I was getting ready to ask if there was a rule in place about the # of 5*'s you could get. At some point it would be possible that we'd just be added people to add them then possibly cutting people unneccessarily. Would that hurt the level of CPU competition?

JeffHCross
07-22-2010, 06:04 PM
I was getting ready to ask if there was a rule in place about the # of 5*'s you could get. At some point it would be possible that we'd just be added people to add them then possibly cutting people unneccessarily. Would that hurt the level of CPU competition?We discussed this last year, and it is certainly possible. However, with how spread out our teams are (nationwide) and with the increased difficulty of the CPU, I don't think it will be a long term problem. You have the entire SEC, California, and the majority of Texas not represented in our dynasty. The CPU should be able to grab plenty of 5*s between those teams, and we'll be running with the majority of other teams that would be picking up 5*s.

We can (and should) revisit this after a season or two, but initially I don't think we're going to have much problem, especially after seeing the recruiting results of some others on this forum.